Best bets for Monday Night Football
Recapping Sunday's Week 1 NFL games and best bets for Jets-49ers
It was a good slate of early games for the sportsbooks on Sunday, but the late games — especially the Dallas Cowboys’ 33-17 drubbing of the Cleveland Browns — and Sunday Night Football’s result hurt the books.
The Detroit Lions (-5.5) were a very public side and people chasing losses from earlier in the day were bailed out when Detroit scored a touchdown in overtime to win 26-20. Respected bettors also pushed the line from Lions -3.5 out to Lions -5.5. When the sharps and the public are on the same side, and it hits, it’s not a good night for bookmakers.
As Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in New Jersey, texted me before the SNF matchup, “Very good day so far, but a lot of the parlay liability is tied to the Lions tonight at -3.5, -4 and -4.5.”
Out in Las Vegas, the story was similar. John Murray, executive director at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook texted, “We did really well on both the Thursday and Friday night games and had a good Sunday morning. We gave some back on Dallas in the afternoon.”
And from Prime Sportsbook, which caters to sharper action like the SuperBook, here was the report from CEO Joe Brennan, “On NFL Sunday, the early games broke well for us, getting New England and New Orleans leading the way, though Miami missed covering by the half-point. Late afternoon was a mixed bag, with the Chargers winning outright being our best result. It got dark once the sun went down, though. Everything was on the Lions for [Sunday night]. We had 3x the money and 2x the tickets on Detroit. Even the sharps were on it. But the sun came up today, so we’re back at it.”
Tonight, the New York Jets travel to take on the San Francisco 49ers as 4-point underdogs, with a total of 43. This line opened 49ers -5.5 and got as low as -3.5 when we didn’t know if Trent Williams or Brandon Aiyuk would play, but it’s now settled at -4 in the market.
The public is on the 49ers to cover (61% of bets at DraftKings, 53% of the money), but a lot of respected wagers are on the Jets.
Hopefully, you enjoyed the wealth of picks and information from Sunday’s post and made some money on a tough Week 1 NFL Sunday. As usual, I’ve compiled a bunch of expert picks below the pay wall for tonight’s game, along with a few props. I think it’s fair to say that the sharps like one side on Monday night.
I’ll add public betting info as it comes in, but wanted to get this out as early as I could for subscribers.
Have a great day!
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Public betting info
BetMGM
Most bet (tickets) player props
Christian McCaffrey to score 1st touchdown (+350)
McCaffrey to score anytime touchdown (-190)
Aaron Rodgers under 236.5 passing yards (-115)
George Kittle over 40.5 receiving yards (-120)
Breece Hall over 26.5 receiving yards (-120)
BetRivers
ML: 69% money, 70% tickets on 49ers
Spread: 53% money, 52% tickets on 49ers
Over: 61% money, 56% tickets on Over
Most wagered-on player props by largest % of total game money:
1. Christian McCaffrey anytime TD (-200) – 5.2%
2. Breece Hall anytime TD (-125) – 2.3%
3. Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+143) – 1.8%
4. Garrett Wilson anytime TD (+118) – 1.3%
5. Aaron Rodgers o249.5 pass yards (+125) – 1.2%
Most popular player props by largest % of total game tickets:
1. Christian McCaffrey anytime TD (-200) – 10.8%
2. Breece Hall anytime TD (-125) – 5.3%
3. Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+143) – 2.9%
4. Garrett Wilson anytime TD (+118) – 2.3%
5. George Kittle anytime TD (+175) – 0.9%
FanDuel
DraftKings
Best Monday Night Football bets
Jets +4.5 — Randy McKay, pro bettor
Jets +4.5 — James Salinas, pro bettor
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