Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Best Week 1 NFL bets to make from sharp bettors

Best Week 1 NFL bets to make from sharp bettors

50 best bets to make from respected handicappers and bookmaker info

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Ben Fawkes
Sep 08, 2024
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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Best Week 1 NFL bets to make from sharp bettors
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Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us, and we have an exciting slate of games to break down, including a terrific Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games.

If there is one Pros vs. Joes game, it would seem to be the Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. the New England Patriots. The betting public is all over Cincinnati, but we’ve seen this line drop from Bengals -9, both due to respected action and the unknown status of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, texted me this morning, “Had respected money on the Patriots earlier in the week at +9 and +8.5. Overall, it’s been very typical of Week 1 with an overload of public money as people wait to bet the closing numbers after having them available for months.”

Here are five sharp plays that came in at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, according to Jeff Sherman, VP of risk:

  • Panthers +4.5

  • Patriots +8.5

  • Bills -5.5

  • Raiders +3.5

  • Lions -3.5

Biggest Week 1 bet I’ve heard just came in at Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas, as a bettor wagered $250,000 on the Minnesota Vikings ML -125 (at New York Giants).

Below, I’ve compiled over 50 Week 1 NFL best bets from respected handicappers for you to peruse, along with public betting info from DraftKings, BetMGM and BetRivers.

I’ll update this page as the day goes on with more wagers.

Have a great Week 1!

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.


BetMGM public betting info

Most bet games (tickets)

  1. Titans-Bears

  2. Jaguars-Dolphins

  3. Cardinals-Bills

Most bet teams (tickets)

  1. Dolphins -3.5

  2. Titans +4

  3. Bills -7

Most bet teams ($$)

  1. Titans +4

  2. Panthers +4

  3. Bengals -7.5

Most bet Overs (tickets)

  1. Jaguars-Dolphins 49

  2. Commanders-Buccaneers 42.5

  3. Broncos-Seahawks 41.5

Most bet Unders (tickets)

  1. Cowboys-Browns 41  

  2. Steelers-Falcons 41.5

  3. Titans-Bears 44.5

Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)

  1. Cowboys +110

  2. Steelers +155

  3. Patriots +310

DraftKings public betting info

BetRivers public betting info

Top 5 public spread plays ranked by strongest % of game spread money:
1. Bengals -8 vs. Patriots – 84.1%
2. Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jaguars – 73.2%
3. Lions -4.5 vs. Rams – 72.5%
4. Seahawks -6.5 vs. Broncos – 68.5%
5. Bears -4 vs. Titans – 65.9%

Top 5 public spread plays ranked by strongest % of game spread tickets:
1. Bengals -8 vs. Patriots – 82.2%
2. Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jaguars – 69.7%
3. Bears -4 vs. Titans – 67.2%
4. Lions -4.5 vs. Rams – 66.2%
5. Texans -3 vs. Colts – 65.6%

brown Wilson football on field
Photo by Dave Adamson on Unsplash

Week 1 NFL best bets

Early games

Titans +3.5 — Sam Panayotovich, BetQL

Titans +4.5 — Chris Farley, pro bettor

Titans +4.5 — Jason Logan, Covers

Titans +4 — Andy Molitor, Deep Dive podcast

Bears -4 — Matt Freedman, Fantasy Life

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