Ranking all 32 starting NFL QBs by point-spread value
A comprehensive list that every NFL bettor should keep handy
If you’ve ever bet on the NFL, it’s likely that you’ve been in a situation where the backup quarterback played a big role in whether you won or lost a bet.
Only a starting QB injury in the NFL is going to significantly move the point spread – with the rare exceptions for a few skill players like Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill. I did an article last year for USA Today asking oddsmakers to rank the most valuable skill position players against the spread (ATS), and Kelce was No. 1 at 1.83 points.
Knowing the point-spread value of a starting NFL quarterback versus his backup can be a huge edge for bettors, both during the week leading up to kickoff and for in-game wagering.
So, how much is a starting QB worth ATS relative to his backup?
There are several factors that oddsmakers consider, including:
The original spread and how close it is to a key number (3,4,6,7,10, etc.)
The starting QB’s overall talent level and quality of the backup
Where the game is being played (home/road/neutral)
The uniqueness of the QB to the success of the offensive scheme
The strength of the offensive coordinator
The overall strength of the team
I first commissioned this article as an editor at ESPN back in 2018, and Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was No. 1, worth a full eight points more than DeShone Kizer. Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco was worth 4.5 points more than rookie Lamar Jackson. That ranking would be a little different today.
Last year, I repeated the exercise, and Patrick Mahomes was No. 1, worth roughly 7.5 points ATS. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow (6.75) were tied for second.
For the 2024-25 season, I went even bigger, speaking to 11 oddsmakers from 10 different sportsbooks across the country and asked them for the difference in the point spread if the starter and backup were playing at home against a league-average team, and both players were fully healthy. I then took those 11 different values for each NFL team starter-backup pairing, averaged them together and ranked the players accordingly.
Here are the NFL’s Top 10 QBs with the most value relative to the point spread (full ranking of all 32 after the pay wall).
You’ll recognize No. 1, but there are a few that surprised me in the Top 5, including Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love.
Top 10 QBs by ATS value
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (7.51 points ATS)
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (6.80)
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (6.78)
4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (6.35)
5. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (6.04)
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (5.87)
7. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (5.76)
8. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (5.40)
9. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (5.18)
10. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (5.12)
It was a fairly narrow range of opinions on Mahomes, as the lowest rating any of the 11 oddsmakers had for him was 6.5 points better ATS than Carson Wentz, and seven oddsmakers had him exactly a touchdown more valuable.
There’s a clear gap between Mahomes at No. 1 and everyone else in the NFL right now. Now a three-time Super Bowl champion, he won with an inferior set of skill-position players and had to win postseason games on the road for the first time.
“He’s the No. 1 quarterback in the league and I don’t think there is a real weakness in his game,” one oddsmaker said.