25 early Week 5 NFL bets to make
Bets that respected handicappers like right now, plus betting splits
As I wrote about in my intro to Monday’s newsletter, it was a better weekend in the NFL for the betting public, punctuated by the Detroit Lions (-4.5) winning and covering in a 42-29 victory over the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. The vast majority of public wagers — including a bunch of moneyline parlays — were tied to Detroit, and the winners included a bettor at Caesars Sportsbook who placed a $220,000 bet on Lions -3.5 and a bettor at BetRivers who wagered $150,000 on the Lions ML.
NFL public sides — defined here as the side getting 51%+ of bets — are now just 22-38-2 ATS after Week 4. That is the worst start ATS for the public in the last 20 years, according to Action’s Evan Abrams. A bettor wagering $100 a game would be down $1,795.
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I’ve gathered a bunch early Week 5 best bets from respected handicappers that you may want to bet before the lines shift more as the week goes on. Remember that the goal in sports betting is to always get the best of the number. If you’re making your first NFL bets of the week on Sunday at 12 p.m. ET, it’s going to be an uphill climb to consistently win. The bets in this column last week went 10-8 overall.
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Week 5 public NFL betting info from DraftKings
Early Week 5 NFL lopsided sides (by total bets):
82% of 🎟️ on Vikings -2.5 (vs. NYJ)
79% on Ravens -2.5 (at CIN)
76% on Commanders -3 (vs. CLE)
74% on Bills -1 (at HOU)
72% on Seahawks -6 (vs. NYG)
71% on Packers -3 (at LAR)
BetRivers
Most wagered-on plays by largest % of NFL weekend handle:
1. Commanders -3.5 vs. CLE -- 7.6%
2. Vikings -3 vs. NYJ -- 7.4%
3. Commanders ML vs. CLE -- 4.9%
4. Bears ML vs. CAR -- 4.3%
5. Vikings ML vs. NYJ -- 3.8%
Most popular plays by largest % of NFL weekend tickets:
1. Vikings ML vs. NYJ -- 4.3%
2. Vikings -3 vs. NYJ -- 4.0%
3. 49ers ML vs. ARI -- 3.9%
4. Commanders ML vs. CLE -- 3.8%
5. Bears ML vs. CAR -- 3.5%
Strongest public spread plays by largest % of game spread handle:
1. Bills -1 at HOU -- 86.6%
2. Vikings -3 vs. NYJ -- 83%
3. Packers -3 at LAR -- 82.3%
4. Broncos -2.5 vs. LV -- 71.9%
5. Commanders -3.5 vs. CLE -- 71.4%
Strongest public spread plays by largest % of game spread tickets:
1. Commanders -3.5 vs. CLE -- 84.3%
2. Patriots -1 vs. MIA -- 83.7%
3. Vikings -3 vs. NYJ -- 81%
4. Cowboys +2.5 at PIT -- 76%
5. Packers -3 at LAR -- 75.9%
Early Week 5 NFL best bets
Thursday Night Football
Bucs +2.5 (at Falcons) — Jason Logan, Covers
Sunday early games
Jets +2.5 (vs. Vikings) — Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports Bet