Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

Share this post

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Tracking all the biggest, most notable and most fun Super Bowl LIX bets

Tracking all the biggest, most notable and most fun Super Bowl LIX bets

A one-stop shop for all the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LIX bets you need to know

Jan 31, 2025
∙ Paid
1

Share this post

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Tracking all the biggest, most notable and most fun Super Bowl LIX bets
2
Share
city with lights turned on during night time
Photo by Leo_Visions on Unsplash

Super Bowl LIX will be the biggest wagering event in U.S. sports betting history, as estimates put the amount that will be bet on Chiefs-Eagles at over $1.5 billion across the 38 states with legal sports betting in the country.

“We opened Chiefs -1.5, which is still where we’re sitting,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City told me this week. “I was a little surprised because we sit in Eagles country and always get heavy action on them, but when we went live right after the AFC Championship Game, all of the initial bets were on Chiefs and the over before we took any Philadelphia money. It’s balanced out since then and there has been decent two-way action.”

We saw multiple bets of $1 million or greater for last year’s Super Bowl, and I expect there to be several more made for this year’s game. I’ll be covering them all in this file up until kickoff.

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

I’m also keeping a running list behind the pay wall of bets that respected handicappers have made on the Super Bowl and I’m planning several Substack Lives next week with respected handicappers — which will be available to paid subscribers — to talk about their Super Bowl wagers and betting strategy.

Be sure to check out these articles from Patrick Everson and Todd Dewey on what Super Bowl LIX props the sharps were betting on opening night at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. It’s a fun night every year.

If you’re interested in advertising on my Substack, my DMs are open on X. Reach out and let’s have a conversation!


DraftKings public betting info

  • DK betting splits are available here


BetMGM

Five most bet player props (by total wagers)

  1. Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards (-125)

  2. Patrick Mahomes over 5.5 rushing attempts (-125)

  3. Saquon Barkley over 112.5 rushing yards (-125)

  4. Xavier Worthy over 5.5 rushing yards (-140)

  5. Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions (-155)

Most bet (tickets) players to score anytime TD

  1. Saquon Barkley -200

  2. Jalen Hurts -115

  3. Patrick Mahomes +400

  4. Travis Kelce +125

  5. Xavier Worthy +155

Most bet (tickets) players to score 1st TD

  1. Saquon Barkley +400

  2. Jalen Hurts +650

  3. Kareem Hunt +900

  4. Travis Kelce +1000

  5. Xavier Worthy +1200


ESPN BET

  • 56.1% of bets and 55.4% of handle are on Eagles spread

  • 54.5% of bets and 59.5% of handle are on Eagles ML

  • 79.5% of bets and 78.9% of handle are on OVER (48.5, opened 49.5)


FanDuel


Biggest Super Bowl LIX wagers

Spread/total/ML

  • $800,000 on Eagles ML +110 at BetMGM Nevada

  • $750,000 on Eagles ML +110 at BetMGM Nevada

  • $500,000 on Eagles ML (EVEN) at Beau Rivage

  • $500,000 on Eagles +1.5 (-115) at DraftKings

  • $345,000 on Chiefs 1H -1 (-115) at Caesars

  • $320,000 on Chiefs ML -130 at BetMGM Nevada

  • $300,000 on Eagles 1H +0.5 at BetMGM Nevada

  • $225,000 on Eagles ML -105 at Caesars

  • $200,000 on Eagles ML +105 at ESPN BET

  • $150,000 on UNDER 49.5 at BetMGM Nevada

  • $140,000 on UNDER 49.5 at BetMGM Nevada

  • $115,000 on Eagles +1 (-115) at Caesars

  • $110,000 on UNDER 49.5 at Caesars

  • $100,000 on Eagles +1 at Caesars (x3)

    How one bookmaker is preparing for Super Bowl LIX

    Ben Fawkes
    ·
    Feb 3
    How one bookmaker is preparing for Super Bowl LIX

    We’re now less than a week from Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans between the Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 49) and Philadelphia Eagles. I have a lot of great coverage planned for the days leading up to the game, including several Substack Lives

    Read full story

Futures

  • $200,000 on Eagles at +275 odds at Caesars

  • $100,000 on Chiefs at +850 odds at DraftKings

  • $22,000 on Chiefs at +650 odds at DraftKings

  • $50,000 on Eagles at +700 odds at Borgata (NJ)

  • $50,000 on Chiefs at +210 odds at Caesars

  • $5,000 on Eagles at 17-1 odds at DraftKings

  • $4,000 on Chiefs over Eagles Super Bowl exacta at 55-1 odds at Circa Sports

    Thanks for reading Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack! This post is public so feel free to share it.

    Share


Prop bets

  • $83,500 on NO player to have a rushing and receiving TD (-835) at BetRivers

  • $51,000 on there NOT to be an Octopus (Same Player Scores TD + subsequent two-point conversion at -3335 odds at BetRivers

  • $22,000 on NO safety at -1100 odds at Rampart Casino


MVP

  • $25,000 on Travis Kelce at 15-1 odds at BetMGM

  • $20,000 on Saquon Barkley at +220 odds at Caesars

  • $20,000 on Patrick Mahomes at +110 odds at Caesars

  • $1,500 on Dallas Goedert at 100-1 odds at BetMGM

  • $550 on Jake Elliot at 1,000-1 odds at Caesars

  • $250 on Darius Slay at 500-1 odds at Caesars


40 Super Bowl LIX best bets from handicappers

Spread/total

Eagles ML +115 — Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports Bet

Eagles +1.5 — Todd Fuhrman, CBS Sports

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Ben Fawkes
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share