How one bookmaker is preparing for Super Bowl LIX
An interview with Thomas Gable about prop bets, Super Bowl 59 action and more
We’re now less than a week from Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans between the Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 49) and Philadelphia Eagles. I have a lot of great coverage planned for the days leading up to the game, including several Substack Lives with handicappers and updating this file with notable wagers and best bets from handicappers.
I thought it would be fun for subscribers to go behind the scenes a bit with a bookmaker to see everyone that goes on before Super Bowl Sunday, so I chatted with Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City this week. The Borgata has an 8,000-square-foot BetMGM Sportsbook & Bar, featuring a 40-foot-wide LED video wall and six betting windows (see pic above).
Here’s the transcript from my interview with Gable on Super Bowl LIX betting action, how the prop betting market has changed, his favorite Super Bowl betting stories and more:
What’s the betting action been like so far for Super Bowl 59?
Gable: We opened Chiefs -1.5, which is where we’re still sitting. I was a little surprised because we’re in Eagles country and always get heavy action on them, but when we went live right after the AFC Championship Game, all of the initial bets were on Chiefs and the over before we took any Philadelphia money. It’s balanced out since then and there has been decent two-way action. We’re not lopsided by any means on Philadelphia, but there’s still a week to go and plenty of casual Eagles money coming in. Total opened 49, and we moved it to 49.5, which is where we still are. Some places have dropped it a bit, but we’re still at 49.5 and vast majority of the money is still coming to the over.
We definitely have liability on Philadelphia in the Super Bowl futures market as well, but we’re not facing anything like two years ago. People were betting them non-stop then. A Chiefs outright win would be our best result for us right now, whether they cover the -1.5 isn’t as big a deal.
What is one of your favorite Super Bowl betting stories?
Gable: We had a guy come in, this was the year of the Tampa Bay Tom Brady Super Bowl, early afternoon, milling around the race and sports book. He walks up to one of the writers, and says, “I have $240,000 in my backpack.” Literally makes that statement and doesn’t say anything. He walks out, doesn’t do anything. He comes back a couple hours later and puts the full amount on Tampa 1Q spread, which I think was half a point. Tampa Bay wins the 1Q and he wins the bet. He comes back at halftime and now he has around $470,000 to play with. He parlays the full amount with Tampa and the 2H and he hits that, so now has a ticket worth $1.2 million and change. So, we’ve seen him now three times. First time when he announced what he had in his backpack, then before the game and then at halftime.
I get a call from the supervisor from the race and sportsbook after the game saying that the guy is over here and he’s requesting a check. I say that I’m coming over. It literally takes three minutes to walk from one room to the next. By the time I got over there, he was gone. I talked to the supervisor, he said he’s got a bunch of women with him. As soon as he asked for a check, they said, “Take cash.” He got nervous and left.
Weeks go by, and we don’t hear from him. We reached out a few times and didn’t hear back. He finally called the week before March Madness started and we made arrangements so he took some of his winnings as cash and some as check. He ended losing all but his original $240,000 after March Madness.
When is the Super Bowl line released and how much does it typically change over the two weeks?
Gable: The line gets released as soon as the championship games are complete on that Sunday night. We already have the numbers set for the four possible matchups to come, and barring any injuries you have to adjust, it’s a pretty quick process to get those up right away. You might see the line move half a point or maybe a point, but for the most part it doesn’t move too much. With this being the final game of the year, there is so much data that everybody has, including us, and you’re seeing the most efficient line of the year – so there never is really much movement. And there aren’t any injuries looming over this game that would make a significant difference to the spread. Could it go towards Philadelphia, sure? It wouldn’t surprise me to see it go more towards pick-em. I think it will stay in the Chiefs -1 to -2 range.
What causes the Super Bowl line to move vs. a typical line? Does the public betting matter?
Gable: Because of the volume, the public certainly does play a part. Not only the volume of bets, but taking into account your futures wagers on the Super Bowl up to that point as well. Two years ago, when Philadelphia was in the Super Bowl against Kansas City, we were facing seven figures of liability on the Eagles. We were able to book out of a lot of that, and ended up needing the Eagles big for that game. The amount of volume you can get from recreational money, it certainly will help you balance things out if you need to.
How many props do you release and when do you release them? What are the usual limits?
Gable: Monday after the championship games we put up all the derivative markets, the quarters, all the alternative lines, team totals, halves, stuff like that. Tuesday, Wednesday, you’re working on pricing out a lot of the props that you would do during a typical Sunday slate and building out some props that you only do for the Super Bowl. Right now, all of our player props are up. The Super Bowl MVP market, you want to get that up quickly because it’s one of the more popular ones to bet. By Friday, we’ll have most of our markets up and you want to get the packet ready of all the props. I think we’ll be around 800 props when it’s all said and done. We use $1,000 as the limit when we open the props and a lot of props will go to $10,000 by the day of the game.
How much of your handle roughly is prop bets and how much on spread/total? How has that changed compared to when you first were on the scene?
Gable: We have not gotten to a point where we’ve written more on props than the game itself. We’ve gotten close the past two years, but haven’t gotten there. At some point within the next three years, the prop handle will surpass the game handle. It’s just a matter of time, and at some books it has. Two days before the game, we had more written on props a few years ago, but then you take a few really big bets and that changes things. The number of prop offerings has grown tremendously through the years. The biggest change is things we’d only put up for the Super Bowl 5-6 years ago, it’s commonplace to do every Sunday for every game. The Super Bowl prop market has affected the regular-season markets, I think that’s been the biggest difference.
How is preparation different for the Super Bowl than a normal Sunday?
Gable: On a normal Sunday, you have a lot more injury news that you’re worrying about, whereas with the Super Bowl everything is pretty much locked down in terms of numbers. There’s a lot more preparation for Super Bowl from administrative things like staffing, approvals for regulators because you’re expanding wagering at parties, coordinating with marketing, doing a lot of other preparatory things that you don’t see during the football season because there isn’t usually this volume of customers in the property. Then you’re concerned about getting the props up and making sure that everything is correct with those, getting everything printed. Even though it’s 2025, people love to come in and grab those packets with all the props. Super Bowl Sunday you’re worried more about things from a people perspective than a numbers perspective. You’re always dealing with big casino customers, does this person have a seat, can they wager this amount on a certain prop.
When do you know how well/poorly you did on the game?
Gable: As you’re watching the game, you’re going to see ahead of time which props are going to be expensive if they do happen or don’t happen. You have a good idea on that. In terms of the game itself and the outcome, you know well in advance. Starting Friday, I will send out to the president, our CFO, here’s what we will win or lose if Eagles win outright and game goes over, every scenario what we win or lose. I’ll send out Saturday morning, Saturday evening and right before game time on Sunday.
When are next year’s Super Bowl odds released?
Gable: Less than 30 minutes after the game, we’ll have next year’s futures pool up.