Best NFL over/under bets to make today
I've compiled 50 wagers from respected handicappers to consider before the season kicks off
Wow, what an opening game between the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) and the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs end up winning (and covering) 27-20 on a last-second reversal of a touchdown due to Isaiah Likely’s toe being on the chalk in the back of the end zone as time expired. A wild ending and a play that determined millions of dollars at sportsbooks.
Barstool Sportsbook CEO Dave Portnoy lost $300,000 on the Ravens moneyline, while another bettor at South Point lost $220,000 on the Ravens +3. The South Point also reported taking a $110,000 winning wager on Chiefs -2.5.
I texted a few Vegas oddsmakers after the game to see how it played out at their shops.
The responses:
"Overall did well, could have used the total to go Over 47. Needed the Over more than either side. Chiefs winning was much better than the Ravens ML."
“I wish he had made it, as long as they were going for two.”
I’ll have an in-depth look at Week 1 picks on Sunday, along with a post on college football tomorrow, but this article focuses on NFL over/under bets.
I’ve read, listened and watched a variety of sports betting programs over the past few months in order to compile 50 over/under wagers from respected handicappers below. I’d pay attention to teams where a bunch of the handicappers are in alignment (see: New England Patriots UNDER).
If you’ve been enjoying my content, be sure to consider becoming a paid subscriber! Football season will provide the most value for the Substack, with weekly picks and content for all major sports for only $9.99/month (~30 cents a day). I’m also running a 25% off discount for yearly subscribers through Sunday!
If you’re new to my Substack, here are a few of the types of articles you can expect:
Week 1 BetMGM public betting info
Most bet games (tickets)
Packers-Eagles
Titans-Bears
Jaguars-Dolphins
Most bet teams (tickets)
Eagles -2
Titans +3.5
Dolphins -3.5
Most bet teams (handle)
Eagles -2
Titans +3.5
Jaguars +3.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
Jets-49ers 44
Jaguars-Dolphins 49
Cardinals-Bills 47.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
Packers-Eagles 49
Cowboys-Browns 41
Steelers-Falcons 42
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
Packers +110
Cowboys +115
Broncos +200
Most bet players props (tickets)
Davante Adams over 69.5 receiving yards (-140)
Caleb Williams over 4.5 rushing attempts (-105)
Diontae Johnson over 51.5 receiving yards (-110)
James Cook over 14.5 rushing attempts (-105)
Saquon Barkley over 64.5 rushing yards (-120)
Season win total best bets
AFC East
Bills UNDER 10.5 wins (-140) — Randy McKay, pro bettor
Dolphins OVER 9.5 (-135) — Jason Logan, Covers
Patriots UNDER 5 (-130) — Matt Youmans, VSiN
Patriots UNDER 4.5 (+135) — Jeff Petch, pro bettor
Patriots UNDER 4.5 (+125) — Jason Logan
Patriots UNDER 3.5 wins alt win total (+255) — Randy McKay
AFC North
Steelers UNDER 8.5 (-120) — Will Hill, VSiN
Steelers alt win total UNDER 8 (+110) — Gill Alexander, VSiN