Week 14 NFL best bets to make right now
40 best bets to make from respected handicappers and betting info from sportsbooks
Week 14 of the NFL season arrived with a bang on Thursday night, as the Detroit Lions (-3.5) outlasted the Green Bay Packers 34-31 in a terrific game. One bettor at Caesars Sportsbook had a $175,000 wager on the Packers moneyline, which didn’t quite work out.
Turning to the weekend, the public is all over the Buffalo Bills (-3.5 at Los Angeles Rams). The Bills are the most-bet side at BetMGM and 83% of the bets and total dollars wagered at DraftKings Sportsbook are on Buffalo to cover. However, this line moved from -4.5 to -3.5 at Circa Sports and 92% of the money right now is on the Rams +3.5 there …
Below, I’ve aggregated 40 early Week 14 NFL best bets from respected handicappers for you, along with public betting info from BetMGM.
I’ll have much more information — including sharp plays from oddsmakers — in my usual Sunday morning NFL post.
One other note: I recently found this app Juice Reel that you may want to check out. A free app with a lot of great tools in there to keep track of your bets, and it also provides syncing with your sportsbook accounts and potential picks from bettors in the community, if you’re so inclined.
Have a great Friday!
BetMGM Week 14 NFL public betting info
Most bet games (tickets)
Bills-Rams
Chiefs-Chargers
Bears-49ers
Most bet teams (tickets)
Bills -3.5
Bears +4
Chargers +4
Most bet teams ($$)
Chiefs -4
Bills -3.5
Bears +4
Most bet Overs (tickets)
Browns-Steelers 43.5
Bengals-Cowboys 49.5
Jaguars-Titans 40
Most bet Unders (tickets)
Seahawks-Cardinals 44.5
Chargers-Chiefs 43
Jets-Dolphins 45
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
1. Bears +165
2. Panthers +575
3. Chargers +165
BetRivers
Most wagered-on plays by largest % of weekend NFL money:
1. Eagles ML vs. CAR — 10.6%
2. Steelers ML vs. CLE — 5.1%
3. Eagles -12.5 vs. CAR — 4.6%
4. Bears +3.5 at SF — 4.3%
5. Bills -3.5 at LAR — 3.7%
Most popular plays by largest % of weekend NFL tickets:
1. Buccaneers ML vs. LV — 6.3%
2. Dolphins ML vs. NYJ — 5.9%
3. Eagles ML vs. CAR — 5.8%
4. Vikings ML vs. ATL — 5.2%
5. Steelers ML vs. CLE — 4.7%
Strongest spread plays by largest % of game spread money:
1. Eagles -12.5 vs. CAR — 84.0%
2. Bears +3.5 at SF — 80.1%
3. Titans -3 vs. JAX — 78.2%
4. Bills -3.5 at LAR — 69.1%
5. Steelers -6.5 vs. CLE — 69.0%
Strongest spread plays by largest % of game spread tickets:
1. Bills -3.5 at LAR — 78.1%
2. Eagles -12.5 vs. CAR — 72.9%
3. Buccaneers -6.5 vs. LV — 72.6%
4. Saints -4.5 at NYG — 72.4%
5. Dolphins -5.5 vs. NYJ — 72.4%
DraftKings
Two FREE Week 14 NFL best bets from Mike Randle at FTN Bets
Los Angeles Chargers ML (+172 at DraftKings)
I’ve waited to make this pick all year. The Chargers have built their roster to beat the Chiefs, and I’m projecting that to come to fruition in Week 14. Los Angeles ranks sixth overall in defensive DVOA, including fifth against the pass. They also have a huge chess piece in safety Derwin James Jr., who missed the first matchup with Kansas City due to a suspension. James is a critical part of limiting tight end Travis Kelce (and maybe Noah Gray?) and is also a strong part of the Los Angeles run defense.
In their first matchup this year, not only was James suspended, but the Chargers played without their top two offensive linemen in rookie Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Quarterback Justin Herbert was still battling a foot injury as well, and the Chargers narrowly lost 17-10. Given Kansas City’s repeated miracle escapes from defeat, this spot is perfect for the Chargers.
Assuming rookie wideout Ladd McConkey plays, Los Angeles will still have enough offensive weapons to attack a Chiefs pass defense that ranks just 16th in DVOA. Kansas City also ranks second worst at defending opposing WR3s per DVOA-adjusted fantasy points against, and fifth worst against tight ends. The loss of running back J.K. Dobbins certainly is a challenge, but veterans Gus Edwards, Hassan Haskins and dynamic rookie Kimani Vidal provide enough variety and depth to compensate.
Kansas City has won six straight games against the Chargers, but five of those games have been decided by seven points or less. Our FTN NFL Betting Model assigns the highest side edge to the Chargers +3.5 this week. We project the Chargers to win this game 21.4 to 19.4, which equates to a 9.9% edge. I’ve waited all year for this moneyline pick, and I’m rolling with the Chargers to cash our Week 14 underdog pick.
Will Levis Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
If you can’t back Will Levis over passing yards at home against the Jaguars, when can you? The Jaguars are a deflated team, and now go on the road against a young Tennessee squad that was very competitive in the four prior matchups before last week’s destruction at Washington. The Jaguars pass defense is among the worst in the league, ranking dead-last in DVOA. Jacksonville also ranks fourth-worst in DVOA-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, and the fifth-most receptions and fourth most receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Levis has beat this number in three straight weeks and crested 260 passing yards in two of his last three home games. This is one of our top prop edges for Week 14 per our FTN Prop Tool, projecting Levis for 235.5 passing yards equating to a 17.8% edge.