Thursday's top Major League Baseball bets
Best bets from THE BAT X projection system, plus public betting info
Hopefully, you’ve been enjoying the daily articles from Derek Carty and have been getting value from them before you place your wagers. They have a terrific and respected projection model (THE BAT X), which provides a ton of great info for bettors to consider before making daily MLB bets, and they’ve been releasing a few plays a day for my subscribers.
The bets from THE BAT X are 23-19, +4.82 units so far in my Substack, since we started in late June, even after a tough 0-2 night on Wednesday.
Be sure to check out all of their content here.
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THE BAT X'S FAVORITE MONEYLINE BETS OF THE DAY
1) +6.08% edge: San Francisco Giants +120 (49.5% projected W% vs. 43.4% implied W%)
2) +4.88% edge: Miami Marlins +220 (35.1% projected W% vs. 30.2% implied W%)
3) +4.54% edge: Toronto Blue Jays -110 (54.5% projected W% vs. 50.0% implied W%)
PROPS OF THE DAY
>> Dylan Cease UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-154/+112)
PREDICTION
THE BAT sees Cease putting up 6.2 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.7% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $21.56.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
- Dylan Cease's 96.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.4-mph spike from last season's 94.9-mph figure.
- Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity over his last three games started (97.3 mph) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (96.3 mph).
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
- The Washington Nationals (20.8 K% via THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate today.
- Ramon De Jesus profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be behind the plate today.