Thursday Night Football best bets: Texans-NY Jets
Info from bookmakers and best bets from handicappers for tonight's game
It’s been a long week for yours truly, as I can report that getting Covid isn’t any more fun the second time around. Usually, Thursday sneaks up on me and I can’t believe there is already another NFL game — but yesterday felt like it consisted of 72 hours by itself.
Nevertheless, we push on and outside of a continuous cough, I’m (hopefully) starting to feel a little better today. Let no one question my commitment to provide quality content for you, dear Substack reader.
Tonight, the 2-6 New York Jets are surprisingly a short home favorite (anywhere from -1.5 to -2.5 at sportsbooks right now) against the 6-2 Houston Texans. While it may seem odd that the Jets are favored, it’s important to remember the Texans have a bunch of injuries as well, including wide receivers Nico Collins (injured reserve for a few more weeks) and Stefon Diggs (torn ACL, out for season) not playing.
“With all the injuries that Houston is dealing with, I do make the Jets a 1-point favorite by my numbers,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata, texted me. “Decent action and slightly more money on the Texans here, but not much. I haven't seen anyone that is super respected take a position on the game yet.”
Not surprisingly, the betting public is backing the Texans to cover. At DraftKings, 72% of bets and 56% of the money is on the Texans -1.5. And at BetMGM, 78% of the bets and 76% of the money is on Houston to cover.
Max Meyer, a senior editor at Fanatics Sportsbook, told me that 75% of the bets and 70% of the money is on the Texans overall to cover, and that “with the spread under a field goal, many bettors are happy to just take the 6-2 Texans to win outright at the plus price.”
The Texans ML (+110) have nearly five times more bets than any other wager for the game at Fanatics Sportsbook.
Below is some public betting information from several sportsbooks, along with 10 best bets for Texans-Jets from respected handicappers. I’ll be adding to this file as we approach kickoff.
Good luck tonight!
BetMGM public betting info
Most bet (tickets) Jets-Texans player props
Joe Mixon over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tank Dell over 4.5 receptions (-110)
CJ Stroud under 221.5 passing yards (-115)
CJ Stroud over 8.5 rushing yards (-120)
Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)
Most bet (tickets) Jets-Texans players to score anytime touchdown
Davante Adams +160
Joe Mixon -155
Garrett Wilson +180
Tank Dell +190
Dalton Schultz +333
Most bet (tickets) Jets-Texans players to score 1st touchdown
Joe Mixon +400
Davante Adams +750
Breece Hall +450
Dalton Schultz +1600
Tank Dell +800
DraftKings
BetRivers
Texans (+105 ML) at Jets (-2, -127 ML), O/U 42
Moneyline: 61% money on Jets, 70% tickets on Texans
Spread: 55% money, 60% tickets on Texans
Over/Under: 77% money, 78% tickets on Over
Player props, ranked by largest % of total game handle:
1. Joe Mixon anytime TD (-148) -- 3.2%
1. Davante Adams anytime TD (+135) -- 1.4%
2. C.J. Stroud over 8.5 rush yards (-123) -- 1.3%
Player props, ranked by largest % of total game tickets:
1. Joe Mixon anytime TD (-148) -- 5.1%
2. Davante Adams anytime TD (+135) -- 2.9%
3. Breece Hall anytime TD (-157) -- 2.3%
FanDuel
Most Popular Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Joe Mixon (-135)
Devante Adams (+155)
Garrett Wilson (+190)
Popular Player Props
Garrett Wilson 21.5 Yards Longest Reception: 99% of bets and 99% of handle on the Over
Joe Mixon 81.5 Rushing Yards: 88% of bets and 94% of handle on the Over
Tank Dell 4.5 Receptions: 98% of bets and 98% of handle on the Over
Fanatics
