Ten Super Bowl 58 prop bets the sharps have bet
Here's what I learned from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's annual prop bet opening on Thursday night
I’m not a big bettor — it just has never interested me much in terms of the emotional stress vs. financial reward. Just speaking for myself, the way I know I’ll feel after losing money on a bet — especially a horrific bad beat — far outweighs the reward (emotionally or financially) of winning one. Everyone operates differently, and it’s important to recognize that as a bettor. No one should be shamed for the unit size they’ve decided on — and mine certainly isn’t one that carries a ton of risk.
But I always have enjoyed talking to people who know far more about sports betting than I ever will — and who wager much larger amounts. One, because they have a completely different perspective on wagering — I know some respected bettors who don’t even watch the games they’ve bet on. And two, because there’s always a reason for why they made their wagers — they are backed by a model, information the rest of the market may not have, etc.
I was at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on Thursday night for their annual Super Bowl prop bet opening. For those that don’t know, traditionally the Westgate was the first place in Vegas to release a full menu of Super Bowl props and sharps would line up 50-deep. They’d be able to make a $2,000 wager and then head to the back of the line. And this process would repeat as long as they wanted to make a bet.
Obviously, times have changed since 2018 with the widespread legalization of sports betting in 38 states, and other national books like DraftKings and FanDuel releasing props on the Sunday night after the championship games. But the Westgate is still where some very respected bettors come to wager on that Thursday — and I got a chance to speak with a couple of them about some props they like.
I also texted with Jay Kornegay to find out which props had the biggest line movement on Thursday night — which usually indicates the props that sharps like the most. As Jay mentioned, there is certainly some arbitrage going on against other books as well, since the Westgate crew trusts their numbers and puts up what they think a prop should be — not what’s been bet into shape from earlier releases at other books.
Here are 10 prop bets that respected bettors wagered on: