Sunday's best MLB player prop bets
Public betting info, along with a several bets via THE BAT X projection system
With the NBA season over and NHL coming to an exciting conclusion on Monday night, the sports betting world turns to summer and the long wait until football is back.
While there are plenty of other events to wager on in the coming months, the daily sport that will always be there is baseball. I’m certainly not qualified to tell you which games to wager on in MLB on a daily basis, so I reached out to some people a lot smarter than me to help provide some insights.
My Substack will now feature a daily MLB piece from Derek Carty from THE BAT X, which will help bridge the gap until football season returns. I’ve known Derek since my ESPN days when he was an analyst on Baseball Tonight, and they’re doing great work on their site. Be sure to check out all of their content here.
I’ll still be doing articles on other sports over the coming months as well, but this will help provide a consistent presence for baseball fans and add more value to your subscription.
As always, any questions or comments for me, don’t hesitate to reach out.
Have a great Sunday!
Most-bet player props at DraftKings Sportsbook (total wagers)
THE BAT X PROJECTIONS
PROPS OF THE DAY
>> Framber Valdez 17.5 Pitching Outs (-129/-106)
PREDICTION
THE BAT sees Valdez putting up 18.0 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $26.22.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
- It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Baltimore Orioles offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.
- Jeremie Rehak profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be calling pitches in today's game.
- Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this game.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
- The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
- The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 5th-best stadium in baseball for home runs.
>> Tyler Nevin 0.5 Total Bases (-167/+135)
PREDICTION
THE BAT sees Nevin putting up 0.66 Total Bases for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.4% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $21.33.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
- Tyler Nevin has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 25.72 ft/sec to 26.23 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).
- Tyler Nevin's 89.9-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in the game since the start of last season: 76th percentile.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
- Tyler Nevin is penciled in ninth in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
- 11% of the time that Tyler Nevin has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pulled from the game early.