NFL Championship Weekend Betting Picture
Insights from oddsmakers and a roundup of best bets for Chiefs-Ravens and 49ers-Lions
Why create a substack?
Growing up in Brooklyn, New York, you’re always around gambling. When I got a job at ESPN and first began working on sports betting content on a daily basis, I fell in love with betting as a different prism through which to view sports. No longer was the question, “Which team won?” It was instead, “Which team won … and by how much.” And also, “What was that guy’s nickname in Vegas?”
It allowed me to look at games differently, appreciate media members (Al Michaels, Chris Berman, Brent Musburger) who understood the odds and their significance in a particular game — and that sports betting content didn’t always need to involve making a pick. The odds could help tell the story of a game and enhance a broadcast — without making the home team -3.5 a “stone-cold lock.” There were better ways to build a mousetrap.
I’m doing some freelance work at the moment in between full-time jobs, so this seemed like a good opportunity to experiment with a Substack. I’m always open on how to improve and what readers would like to see.
My goals (and what you’ll get as a paying subscriber):
-Reporting on betting action from my regular conversations with bookmakers and bettors
-A space to make sports betting more accessible to newer bettors
-Aggregating picks, interesting betting trends on important games from a variety of handicappers into one place
-Interviews with people in the sports and sports betting space
AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 44.5)
DraftKings betting splits: 50% of bets, 61% of $$ on Ravens -4.5
-The vast majority of bets (77%) at DraftKings are on the OVER 44.5, but they took some big bets on the UNDER, as only 52% of the handle is on the OVER 44.5. It was north of 75% on Saturday.
-Patrick Mahomes will be an underdog for only the 12th time in his career. Mahomes is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and has won 8 of 11 games outright.
-The Chiefs are currently 4.5-point underdogs at Circa and SuperBook Sports. If that line holds, it would be tied for the biggest underdog Mahomes has ever been (+4.5 at PIT, Week 2 of 2018 season). Circa Sports moved to Ravens -5 on Sunday morning.
From one Vegas oddsmaker: “We’ve seen pretty balanced action, some sharp action at Baltimore -3.5.”
From an oddsmaker in New Jersey: “Still pretty balanced action on Detroit-San Francisco. Detroit ML becoming more popular today. We’ll still need Baltimore to win the game right now.”