'It’s been nothing but Mavericks money': Five oddsmakers break down NBA Finals betting action
Plus, where the public is betting and 15 best bets from handicappers
Do we have the two best teams in the NBA Finals? The Boston Celtics have certainly been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season, and the Dallas Mavericks are certainly the hottest team in the West — and have been terrific since the NBA trade deadline in February. If you played out this season 100 times, I would guess that one of the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves or Oklahoma City Thunder make it far more often than Dallas, but that’s why they play the games. And yes, I’m still speaking from the perspective of a bitter T’Wolves fan.
The Celtics (-220) are favored for the first time in an NBA Finals since 1986, while the Mavs (+180) are looking for their first NBA title since 2011, when Jason Kidd was their point guard.
In terms of injuries, the long layoff helps both teams, as Kristaps Porzingis will reportedly be back for Game 1, and Luka Doncic and Derek Lively both will get a long break to get healthier from their various maladies.
I spoke to five different bookmakers to get information on where the public and respected action is for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, along with the full series price. I’ve also collected public betting information from several books, and aggregated best bets from handicappers. I’ll add to the file as we approach tip on Thursday night.
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics (-6.5, 215.5)
DraftKings: 69% of bets, 60% of $$ on Mavs +6.5
FanDuel: 64% of bets, 60% of $$ on Mavs +6.5
BetMGM: 71% of bets, 67% of $$ on Mavs +6.5
BetRivers: 74% of bets, 76% of $$ on Mavs +6.5
Most-bet Game 1 player props (by total wagers) at BetMGM
Derek Lively over 1.5 assists (-105)
Daniel Gafford under 1.5 blocks (-175)
Kristaps Porzingis over 23.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120)
Kyrie Irving over 31.5 points/rebounds/assists (-125)
Kristaps Porzingis over 1.5 three-pointers (-175)
Most-bet Game 1 player props (by total wagers) at DraftKings
Fanatics Sportsbook betting insights
Oddsmaker insights on Game 1
“For Game 1, there was early money to the Over. We opened 213 for the total, now at 214.5. On the side, a little more money on the Mavs right now, but nothing significant.” — Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at Borgata in New Jersey
"Bettors are swarming to Dallas as the road underdogs have currently taken 80% of bets and 65% of handle on the ML as well as 64% of bets and 60% of handle on the spread. Despite this action, the line has drifted further towards Boston from -5.5 at open to -6.5 currently due to trader opinion and sharp customers on the Celtics.” — FanDuel Sportsbook trader
“As expected, it’s been nothing but Mavericks money since their series ended. It’s been a touch over 80% of the bets on Dallas.” — Halvor Egeland, BetMGM NBA trader
“So far just Boston support in Game 1. We saw sharp play at Celtics -6, currently sit at -6.5.” — Jeff Sherman, VP of risk at SuperBook Sports
“Money is fairly split on Game 1, however the ticket count clearly favors the Mavs at about 3-1. Game opened -6 and quickly went to -6.5 from money bet. Money is clearly on the Over as is ticket count at a 5-1 clip.” — Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos sportsbook director
“Spread action is clearly favoring the Mavs by roughly a 65-35 split, though that will level out a lot more by game time, especially with Porzingis looking very likely to play. The total market is almost one-way traffic to the Over214.5, up from 213.5 with approximately 85% of bets on the Over.” — Aron Wattleworth, Bet365 trading manager
Oddsmaker insights on NBA Finals series price
“For the series price, we opened Boston -225 and have stayed there. The market moved towards the Mavs, but we have seen money in on Moston still at -225. We’re a small loser to Boston in the future book, but they’ve been bet all year to win the title. We are in good shape with Dallas.” — Gable
“Both results are decent for us currently, but we’ll definitely be cheering for the Celtics. We’ve seen some five-figure bets on the Mavs to win the series.” — Egeland
“We’ve had solid two-way action on the series price, bouncing between opening Boston -210 and Dallas +180 and currently Celtics -220 and +190. We have liability on Dallas futures in Nevada, including some February wagers at 50-1. Book can use Boston at this point.” — Sherman
“Both money and ticket count clearly favors the Mavs. Futures overall in really good shape with the Celtics. We have some liability with the Mavs.” — Esposito
“With Boston being a season-long favorite in the NBA championship outright market, it’s fair say we have had almost season long action in them from earlier and money on them to win the Finals at -210, which would paint a picture that [the Celtics winning] is a bad result. The reality is [it isn’t], and given all the action the teams that aren’t there brought, we find ourselves in a decent spot with those futures. For the current series market, as with Game 1 spread and ML, more are siding with Dallas than Boston with approximately 60% of the tickets. — Wattleworth