'I'm crossing my fingers': A 2024 NFL Draft betting action report from an oddsmaker
Why bookmakers hate booking the NFL draft and where the action is among the Top 10 picks
If there is an event that oddsmakers around the country — and especially in Las Vegas — dread the most every year, it’s the NFL Draft.
With more information on social media, more podcasts and more mock drafts covering the NFL Draft than every before, information moves very quickly and most of the time bets come flooding in on a market before oddsmakers know why. It’s essentially impossible to keep up with bettors focused on this all day, while oddsmakers have to book every sport.
“One reason the draft is a nightmare for the book is because money comes in on a player and we don’t know why,” Christian Cipollini, an NFL trader at BetMGM told me on Wednesday.
“While we’re sitting here in the trader’s room saying, ‘There’s not way they’ll draft him,’ for the draft we will move off money — something we don’t typically do — but for the draft we will because of the nature of the market. It also makes it so tricky with people opening up new accounts [to bet on the draft].”
In previous drafts, we saw a flood of money come in on Trevon Walker late to go No. 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars instead of Aidan Hutchinson (happened), Will Levis to go in the Top 5 (didn’t happen) and Jalen Carter to go No. 5 to the Seahawks (didn’t happen).
The big difference in the NFL draft, though, is that inside information can result in a certainty of an event, rather than helping a probability.
Put another way: If a bettor knew that a starting QB was injured, maybe he could get a few more points — but the team he wagered on still has to cover against the backup QB. In the NFL Draft, if a bettor has accurate information that a player is being picked No. 4, it will happen — which is why, as Magee notes, the money coming in has to be respected.
Derek Stevens, owner of Circa Sports, summed it up well on VSiN last week, saying, “As a football fan and a sports fan, I love the draft. I love everything about it. But, now that I'm in this sports betting business, I've come to the point where the draft is the worst day of the year … You can’t win, no matter what you do, everybody is complaining about this or that. And then we get smoked.”
BetMGM’s Cipollini told me that “I’m crossing my fingers, but I feel a lot better about this one than in any other draft.”
I asked him about the action for the Top 10 picks in this year’s NFL Draft, and I also provide some NFL Draft nuggets from other sportsbooks below.
No. 1 pick (Chicago Bears)
Favorite: Caleb Williams -10000
“Almost any scenario of Caleb Williams not going No. 1 is bad. He’s been pretty short for a while now. I was surprised when he was -800, didn’t think it would last. We’ve taken some bets, but no real liability there.”
No. 2 pick (Washington Commanders)
Favorite: Jayden Daniels -600