Friday's best MLB bets to make
Public betting info, along with several bets via THE BAT X projection system
Hope everyone is having a good Friday and enjoying this terrific weather we’re having here on the East Coast. I’ll have some NFL and content from other sports next week, but here are some bets on Friday’s MLB slate to hold you over.
My Substack will now feature a daily MLB piece from Derek Carty from THE BAT X. It will help bridge the gap until football season returns. Be sure to check out all of their content here.
Enjoy!
Friday’s THE BAT X Projections
THE BAT X'S FAVORITE MONEYLINE BETS OF THE DAY
1) +9.62% edge: San Francisco Giants -110 (59.6% projected W% vs. 50.0% implied W%)
2) +4.17% edge: Tampa Bay Rays -160 (63.3% projected W% vs. 59.1% implied W%)
3) +4.08% edge: Texas Rangers +115 (48.8% projected W% vs. 44.7% implied W%)
PROPS OF THE DAY
>> Alec Marsh 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
PREDICTION
THE BAT sees Marsh putting up 3.4 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.6% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $21.35.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
- When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Alec Marsh in the 80th percentile among all starters in MLB.
- Alec Marsh has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.36 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.29 — a 0.94 K/9 gap.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the third-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19.6% underlying K%.
- The No. 1 stadium in baseball for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.