College Football Playoff: Best bets for Notre Dame-Penn State
Pro bettor Paul Stone's opinion on the game and best bets from other handicappers
The College Football Playoff semifinals get underway on Thursday with Notre Dame (-1.5, 45) taking on Penn State. The Fighting Irish have covered 10 straight games, including both of their CFP matchups. The Nittany Lions have won and covered both of their CFP games easily (38-10 over SMU as 9-point favorites, 31-14 over Boise State as 11.5-point favorites).
The line has fluctuated between Notre Dame -1.5 and -2.5 at sportsbooks since opening, but the big move has been on the total. The public is backing the Fighting Irish to cover.
“We opened Notre Dame -1.5 and total of 48.5,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in New Jersey, told me. “The big move has been towards the under, as we’ve moved three points down to 45.5. It could go down to 45 soon. All the money is on the under. Notre Dame currently up to -2 and slightly more money on Fighting Irish, but a lot of people betting Notre Dame ML and laying -130 or -135. I’m sure we’ll see Penn State money late, but it’s been pretty good two-way action early on.”
One big injury to watch is the status of Penn State star DE Abdul Carter. Head coach James Franklin said on Wednesday that he expects Franklin to play but that it will be a game-time decision.
Below, you’ll find best bets on the game from several handicappers, and public betting information on the game from sportsbooks. I also asked pro bettor Paul Stone for his handicap for Penn State-Notre Dame.
I’ll have analysis on Ohio State-Texas out tomorrow. And subscribers, please take a moment to send a thought or good vibe to everyone out in Southern California going through a terrible time with the wildfires. Hopefully, the situation gets better soon.
BetMGM
Most bet (tickets) Notre Dame-Penn State player props
1. Jadarian Price anytime TD (+185)
2. Jeremiyah Love under 38.5 rushing yards
3. Harrison Wallace over 39.5 receiving yards
4. Jordan Faison over 42.5 receiving yards
5. Riley Leonard under 1.5 passing TD
DraftKings
ESPN BET
Notre Dame–Penn State
61.1% of bets and 53.7% of handle are on Notre Dame (-1.5, opened –2.5)
48.7% of bets and 52.5% of handle are on Notre Dame ML (-135)
36.9% of bets and 64.3% of handle are on UNDER (44.5, opened 44.5)
BetRivers
Notre Dame (-1.5, -118 ML) vs. Penn State (-104 ML), O/U 45
Moneyline: 83% money, 59% tickets on Notre Dame
Spread: 52% money, 54% tickets on Notre Dame
Over/Under: 75% money, 56% tickets on Under
No. 7 Notre Dame (-1.5, 45) vs. No. 6 Penn State
Thursday, Jan 9, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Stone: “This total opened at 50 at some books, now it’s down to 45. That dampens my enthusiasm for the under, but with that said I expect a so-called ‘rock fight’ where points are at a premium. I have a formula that projects total offensive plays in a game, this one projects 125.5 in the game, which is somewhat below average. Both teams are excellent on both sides of the ball, but I think defense is going to rule the day. Both defenses give up an average of less than 16 points a game and are among the national leaders in yards per play.”
Lean: Under 45
Best bets
Penn State +2.5 — Stuckey, Action