College Football Playoff National Championship Game: Best bets for Ohio State-Notre Dame
Pro bettor Paul Stone's best bet on the game and betting info from the books
The College Football Playoff National Championship Game is on Monday night, as the Ohio State Buckeyes (-8.5, 46.5) take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Both teams are 3-0 against the spread in the CFP, and Ohio State has covered as a favorite in all three games.
I spoke with several bookmakers already this week about the action for Monday night’s contest, and the consensus was that there was respected action on the opener of Notre Dame +9.5 to drive the line down, including a bet at +9.5 from a “very respected bettor” at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, according to executive director John Murray. Many sportsbooks are currently sitting as low as Ohio State -8. The public is backing Ohio State to cover at multiple sportsbooks, but not overwhelmingly.
“Action has been pretty big, which is exciting to see,” Seamus Magee, BetMGM trader texted me today. “We’re starting to get a little lopsided on Ohio State -8.5 — [we were] much more balanced at 9.5, but sharp enough money came in to push us down to 8.5. Plenty of interest in the Notre Dame money line. While we’ve taken more money on the Ohio State ML (also gonna be in a heap of parlays), we’ve taken enough action to more Notre Dame a liability on the game book, but our futures book easily softens a Notre Dame outright win. So, best result for the house is going to be an Ohio State win and Notre Dame cover.”
Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told me that he’d gotten some sharp action on the Buckeyes at -8.5 at his shop. He also noted that the CFP title game had taken more money than any of the four NFL games at this point.
Below, you’ll find 10 best bets on Notre Dame-Ohio State from several handicappers, and public betting information on the game from sportsbooks. I also asked college football bettor Paul Stone for his handicap for the game, along with his best bet.
Good luck with your wagers!
BetMGM
Most bet (tickets) Ohio State-Notre Dame player props
1. Jeremiyah Love under 41.5 rushing yards
2. Aneyas Williams over 26.5 receiving yards
3. Will Howard over 245.5 passing yards
4. Emeka Egbuka over 57.5 receiving yards
5. Riley Leonard over 37.5 rushing yards
Spread:
Opened: Ohio State -9.5, now Ohio State -8.5
55% of bets, 64% of $$ on Ohio State
Total: Opened 45.5, now 45.5
71% of bets, 74% of money on Over
DraftKings
DK betting splits available here
ESPN BET
59.2% of bets and 69% of handle are on Ohio State (-8.5, opened –9.5)
53.3% of bets and 52.7% of handle are on Ohio State ML (-380)
78.4% of bets and 67.7% of handle are on OVER (45.5, opened 46.5)
No. 8 Ohio State (-8.5, 45.5) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
Monday, Jan. 20, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Paul Stone: Ohio State has clearly found another gear in the playoff. They’ve been hitting on all cylinders and have defeated three really good football teams in Tennessee, Oregon and Texas, all by 14 points or more. A key to the Buckeyes’ resurgence has been the play of their QB Will Howard. He’s completed 65-of-88 passes (74%) for 919 yards, an average of 10.4 yards per attempt, with six TDs and two INTs. Ohio State has averaged 7.5 YPP in the three victories, while only allowing 4.2 YPP.
Notre Dame certainly has a puncher’s chance, but the Irish will have to win the turnover and special teams battle, and they’ve been very good in both of those areas this season. It’s not of the question that they can make this a four-quarter game, but Riley Leonard is going to need to have success throwing the ball. Marcus Freeman is 26-7-1 against the spread in Notre Dame’s last 34 games and he’s 6-1-1 ATS in the underdog role.
I like Ohio State -8 and a lot of reason for my position is that while I’m impressed with Notre Dame, especially on the defensive side of the ball, when you dissect their schedule you see that they played two MAC teams, two service academies, two teams without their starting QBs (Georgia Tech and Georgia) and then Purdue, Stanford, Florida State and Virginia. The first three of those teams were 120th or worse this season in total offense, and Virginia was 97th, so not exactly the level of talent they’ll be facing on Monday night against Ohio State.
Paul Stone’s Pick: Ohio State -8
Best bets from other handicappers
Ohio State -8 — Chris Fallica, FOX Sports