Best MLB bets for Thursday's games
Several best bets via THE BAT X projection system for today's action
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With the MLB regular season winding down (and my Minnesota Twins continuing to desperately give away a playoff berth), we turn today to Derek Carty & Co. They’ve been releasing a few baseball plays a day for my subscribers for a couple months now.
Be sure to check out all of their content here.
I’ll be back in a few hours with a post on Thursday Night Football.
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BetMGM public betting info
Most bet games – Moneyline (tickets)
San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Most bet teams – Moneyline (tickets)
Baltimore Orioles (-150)
Cleveland Guardians (-110)
Atlanta Braves (-225)
New York Mets (-130)
New York Yankees (-105)
Most bet teams – Moneyline (handle)
Baltimore Orioles (-150)
Atlanta Braves (-225)
St. Louis Cardinals (-145)
New York Mets (-130)
Cleveland Guardians (-110)
Top 5 most bet props (tickets)
Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Zach Eflin Under 1.5 Pitcher Walks (-210)
Clarke Schmidt Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Luis Ortiz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Chris Sale Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Top 5 most bet HR (tickets)
Shohei Ohtani (+333)
Gunnar Henderson (+550)
Aaron Judge (+310)
Anthony Santander (+575)
Jose Ramirez (+500)
THE BAT X's Favorite Moneyline Bets of the Day
1) +5.48% edge: Philadelphia Phillies +115 (49.8% projected W% vs. 44.4% implied W%)
2) +5.14% edge: Texas Rangers -120 (57.3% projected W% vs. 52.2% implied W%)
3) +4.91% edge: Cleveland Guardians -110 (54.9% projected W% vs. 50.0% implied W%)
Best bets
Luis Ortiz UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Prediction
THE BAT sees Ortiz putting up 3.5 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 28.1% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $33.94.
Factors that favor the Over
- John Bacon projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be in charge of the strike zone in this game.
- Luis L. Ortiz's cut-fastball percentage has risen by 19.7% from last season to this one (0.3% to 20%) .
Factors that favor the Under
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.9% underlying K%.