Best Major League Baseball bets for Thursday
Best bets from THE BAT X projection system, plus public betting info
Happy Thursday!
We finally have an NFL game to wager on today, albeit it being a preseason tilt between the Chicago Bears (without Caleb Williams and their starters) and the Houston Texans (minus C.J. Stroud and their starters). With a total down to 30.5, it probably won’t be the most exciting game you’ve ever watched, but hey, it’s football.
Action at sportsbooks has backed up the lack of star power playing.
“Pretty light action so far,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told me in a text. “Some more money to the Under.”
Hopefully, you’ve been enjoying the daily baseball articles from Derek Carty and have been getting value from them before you place your wagers. They have a terrific and respected projection model (THE BAT X), which provides a ton of great info for bettors to consider before making daily MLB bets, and they’ve been releasing a few plays a day for my subscribers.
The recommended prop bets from THE BAT X area ridiculous 32-22, +13.18 units so far in my Substack, since we started in late June. So if you haven’t been betting them daily, you’ve been missing out!
Be sure to check out all of their content here.
THE BAT X's Favorite Moneyline Bets of the Day
1) +3.38% edge: Miami Marlins +165 (39.7% projected W% vs. 36.3% implied W%)
2) +3.13% edge: Los Angeles Angels -120 (55.3% projected W% vs. 52.2% implied W%)
3) +1.37% edge: Detroit Tigers +130 (43.4% projected W% vs. 42.0% implied W%)
Props of the Day
Ben Lively UNDER 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/-105)
Prediction
THE BAT sees Lively putting up 14.6 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 36.1% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $26.10.
Factors that favor the Over
- The Baltimore Orioles have been the sixth-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward