Best Major League Baseball bets for Tuesday
A pair of best bets via THE BAT X projection system
I’m heading into New York City this morning for the Sportradar Connect conference, so it’ll be a brief intro today.
One note for subscribers: My annual NFL QB against the spread rankings will be published this week. I’ve spent the last few months talking with 12 bookmakers across the U.S. and they’ve ranked all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks based on their point-spread value relative to their backup. It’s one of my favorite pieces of content to do, and one that I hope provides bettors with a ton of value when making NFL bets this season. It should also lead to plenty of healthy debate.
And yes, spoiler alert: Patrick Mahomes is still the most valuable player (and QB) in the NFL against the spread.
Hopefully, you’ve been enjoying the daily articles from Derek Carty and have been getting value from them before you place your wagers. They have a terrific and respected projection model (THE BAT X), which provides a ton of great info for bettors to consider before making daily MLB bets, and they’ve been releasing a few plays a day for my subscribers. You’ll find two more in there today.
Be sure to check out all of their content here.
Enjoy!
DraftKings public betting info
THE BAT X'S FAVORITE MONEYLINE BETS OF THE DAY
1) +8.86% edge: Miami Marlins +160 (46.1% projected W% vs. 37.2% implied W%)
2) +5.98% edge: Cincinnati Reds +200 (38.2% projected W% vs. 32.2% implied W%)
3) +5.44% edge: Colorado Rockies +135 (46.3% projected W% vs. 40.9% implied W%)
PROPS OF THE DAY
>> Jon Gray 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-198)
PREDICTION
THE BAT sees Gray putting up 16.3 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.2% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $48.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
- The third-worst projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Chicago White Sox.
- Vic Carapazza projects as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be umping in today's game.
- The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Globe Life Field as the third-worst field in Major League Baseball for batting average.