Best bets, public plays for Wednesday's NBA games
How the public is betting Wednesday's games, and a few best bets from handicapper Danny Burke
It’s a big nine-game slate in the NBA on Wednesday night, headlined by another NBA Finals rematch as the Denver Nuggets (-3.5, 216) take on the Miami Heat in Miami. These teams met on Feb. 29 in Denver, and the Nuggets won 103-97 but didn’t cover as 6.5-point favorites.
The Detroit Pistons (-3.5, 232.5 vs. Raptors) are also favorites for just the seventh time this season, but have been good in that role, covering four of the previous six games (but going 2-4 SU).
But most importantly, I’ve very excited that Danny Burke — my colleague previously at VSiN — is going to be handicapping some games for me to supplement my content. It should give subscribers some more value and some more insight the why of making sports bets — rather than just giving out picks with no explanation.
Tonight, he has two picks in the NBA — one in Warriors-Mavs and one in the aforementioned Raptors-Pistons game.
Danny is a great on-air sports betting host and all-around good guy. Everyone should check out his website here and his podcast Burke’s Beat.
Below you’ll find how the public is betting tonight’s NBA slate at DraftKings Sportsbook, along with a written best bet on two games from Danny and an aggregation of NBA best bets from other handicappers that I’ll update throughout the day.
Good luck with your bets!
DraftKings
Most-bet NBA games by total wagers
Nuggets -3.5
Pacers -4
Magic -7
Lakers -2.5
Raptors +3.5
Most-bet by handle
Nuggets -3.5
Lakers -2.5
Magic -7
Pacers -4
Pistons -3.5
Lopsided sides by betting percentage (total wagers):
Nuggets -3.5: 77% of bets, 83% of $$
Hawks -3.5: 70% of bets, 75% of $$
Magic -7: 68% of bets, 89% of $$
Player props
Best NBA bets tonight
Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons (-3.5, 232.5)
This will be the third and final matchup of the season for these two teams, having split the first two with both home teams winning.
There will be some differences this time around, though, and they will mainly be featured throughout Toronto's roster.
Unlike in the previous meetings, tonight the Raptors will be without Pascal Siakam (traded), Scottie Barnes (injury), Jakob Poeltl (injury), RJ Barrett (injury) and Chris Boucher (injury). Oh, and Immanuel Quickly and Gary Trent Jr. are listed as “questionable” for this game.
This leads to the Pistons, believe it or not, being in a favorable spot. The market appears to agree, too. We've witnessed Detroit open as low as a 2-point favorite, but have now seen them shift to as high as -3.5.
Usually when I’m breaking down a game I list a handful of stats that display why one side should benefit and the other should falter. It’s difficult to find numbers that back this Pistons team, though, considering they have been dreadful for basically the entirety of this year. However, they have won two of their past five games; so there is progress happening in the Motor City!
Perhaps where we can attribute some positives, aside from the injury report, would be the scheduling situation. Toronto will be enduring its fourth straight road game in seven nights. On the other side, Detroit will be playing its fourth straight home game in seven nights. And those aforementioned two wins came within that span.
The Pistons will be playing a tad bit more enthusiastically after their (relatively speaking) recent success, whereas the Raptors are just counting down the minutes until they can hit the links.
Play: Pistons -3.5 (-108); Risk 1.08 units to win 1.00