Best bets, public plays for Thursday night's NBA games
How the public is betting Thursday's games at DraftKings, plus insights from a FanDuel trader
It’s another exciting night of NBA action, headlined by the Denver Nuggets hosting the Boston Celtics in a potential Finals rematch. The Celtics opened as small road favorites (-1 or -1.5) at sportsbooks, but overnight the Nuggets became a consensus 1-point favorite. It would be the first time all season Denver is a home underdog if the game closes with Boston favored.
“We opened Boston as a favorite yesterday afternoon,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City texted me. “It flipped before the end of the day. I wouldn’t say it’s been sharp money on Denver, but it’s been almost all Denver money so far.”
Be sure to check out predictions for a Nuggets-Celtics Finals that I contributed to on Royce Webb’s Substack here.
Here’s a look at the biggest public NBA plays at DraftKings, along with insights from a FanDuel sportsbook trader on some of Thursday’s biggest games:
FanDuel
Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets: “The marquee matchup of the night and possibly the season, as this could very well be a Finals preview. The Celtics and Nuggets previous matchup resulted in Boston’s first home loss of the year and they’ll look to get revenge in Denver. Betting is unsurprisingly pretty evenly split, with about 58% of handle on the Nuggets ML and 55% of handle on the spread (although about 52% of bets are on the Celtics). The under is far more popular than the over as bettors anticipate playoff-level intensity, fewer possessions, and more locked in defensive efforts from these two title favorites — 80% of handle has been on the under.”
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks: “It’s a rematch of the 2011 Finals and player props are dominating the handle in this game. It’s no surprise to see lots of love for Luka Doncic to record a triple double – he’s currently recorded four straight 30-point triple doubles, making him just the third player in NBA history to do so after Russell Westbrook and Oscar Robertson. It’s a little more surprising to see Bam Adebayo garner nearly as many bets for the same feat, and even Jimmy Butler is getting some love. Even the role players are getting in on the action, as PJ Washington to record 3+ and 4+ 3-pointers have been our most-bet player props of the game.”