Best bets, public plays for Saturday's college basketball games
How respected bettors are wagering in Marquette-UConn, today's biggest games
Just like that, Selection Sunday is one more sleep away. We’ve already seen plenty of appetizers to March Madness with upsets in conference tournaments, including Oregon’s 67-59 win over Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals on Friday night as an 11.5-point underdog. I was at that game, and can tell you that there was nothing fluky about that win. The Ducks are long and athletic, and you could see their confidence grow with every 3-point shot they made.
We’ve got several really intriguing matchups today, including No. 1 Houston (-5.5, 122.5) vs. No. 7 Iowa State and No. 2 UConn (-9.5, 142.5) vs. No. 10 Marquette. It should be another great day of college basketball.
I texted two bookmakers on Saturday morning and they had received sharp action on the following sides:
Wisconsin +6
UAB +2.5
Nebraska +4.5
Below I’ve compiled where the public is betting on today’s college basketball games at both BetMGM and DraftKings, along with over 20 wagers to make from respected handicappers. I’ve dropped the paywall lower than usual, so new subscribers can see more of what they’re missing out on. Danny Burke is also back with an NBA player prop he likes.
I’ll be posting daily during March Madness next week, so I’m pretty confident you’ll get more from the $6 this month than the cup of Starbucks it would otherwise go towards.
Have a great Saturday of betting!
Public plays at BetMGM
Most bet games (tickets)
Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Mississippi State vs. Auburn
NC State vs. North Carolina
Most bet teams (tickets)
Purdue -6.5
Auburn -7.5
Houston -4.5
Most bet teams (handle)
Purdue -6.5
Auburn -7.5
South Florida -1.5
Most bet Overs (tickets)
Wisconsin vs. Purdue OVER 143.5
UMass Lowell vs. Vermont OVER 135.5
Iowa State vs. Houston OVER 121.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
Mississippi State vs. Auburn UNDER 143.5
Brown vs. Princeton UNDER 139.5
Nebraska vs. Illinois UNDER 153.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
Mississippi State +280
NC State +360
Brown +375
Lopsided public plays at DraftKings Sportsbook
86% of bets, 83% of $$ on South Florida -2
78% of bets, 71% of $$ on Houston -5.5
76% of bets, 70% of $$ on Purdue -5.5
75% of bets, 61% of $$ on Western Kentucky -3
67% of bets, 59% of $$ on UNC -10
NBA best bet from Danny Burke
Nets at Pacers
Two teams with two days of rest leading into this game are facing off in the state of Indiana. The Pacers (37-30) host the Nets (26-40) in the first matchup of the season for these squads.
I believe this setting will present a healthy amount of scoring. And that is why I am betting the over at 227.5.
If you’ve been following along with the NBA, you probably have witnessed just how poor this Indiana defense is. The Pacers rank 27th in defensive points per 100 possessions allowed (119.7), 24th in defensive effective field goal percentage (56.5%) and 29th in defensive free throw rate (22.7).
On the offensive side, the Pacers can hang with the best of them, though. They are second in the NBA in both pointers per possession (121) and eFG% (58%).
Their opponent, Brooklyn, does not have quite the same offensive prowess as them (20th in Pts/Poss and 21st in eFG%). However, if we recognize just how brutal the home team’s defense is, then we can expect that average to receive a boost.
The Nets’ defense doesn’t have many strengths, either. Defensively, Brooklyn is 17th in Pts/Poss (116.4), 15th in eFG% (55%) and 21st in free throw rate (20.4).
Indiana, at home and against a mediocre defense, should have no issue scoring tonight. And considering they are second in pace of play, score a lot better at home and are the favorite, I imagine they will be the ones dictating that pace. The Nets, who rank 21st in that category, will inevitably have to follow suit in order to try to keep up.
Play: Pacers/Nets Over 227.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 Units to win 1.00