Best bets, public betting info on Thunder-Mavs Game 6
Where the public is betting and best bet from respected NBA prop bettor PipsNBA
Another Game 6 on Friday night led to another Game 7 forced, as the Indiana Pacers (-5.5) dispatched the New York Knicks 116-103. Most concerning for the Knicks is that ironman Josh Hart left the game in the fourth quarter with an abdominal injury. The Knicks have now, incredibly, lost nine straight playoff games in Indiana.
Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks (-4) try to eliminate the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder. I asked respected NBA prop better PipsNBA to give me one of his favorite plays on the game. Be sure to check out his site Props Madness, which created a lot of the terrific graphics he uses in his reasoning below.
Here is where the public is betting in Thunder-Mavs at several sportsbooks and an aggregation of best bets from a few other handicappers.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-4, 209)
DraftKings: 67% of bets, 83% of $$ on Mavs -4
BetMGM: 77% of bets, 85% of $$ on Mavs -3.5
Most bet (tickets) Mavericks-Thunder player props
Kyrie Irving over 19.5 points (-120)
PJ Washington under 7.5 rebounds (-120)
Jalen Williams over 10.5 assists/rebounds (-120)
Cason Wallace over 4.5 points (-130)
Luka Doncic over 28.5 points (-120)
DraftKings most popular props
Best bets
PipsNBA: Cason Wallace over 4.5 points (-130)
When it comes to betting on NBA player props in the playoffs, I love to look at rotations from bench players to find some positive or negative trends in minutes. In Game 5, OKC finally decided to stop starting Josh Giddey. While they started Isaiah Joe, the guy who profited the most was Wallace: He played the fifth-most minutes behind SGA, Jalen Williams, Lou Dort, and Chet Holmgren, including 17 minutes in the second half while he wasn't even shooting well (1-of-7). Joe played eight second-half minutes, while Aaron Wiggins and Giddey got only four, so it's clear that the coach trusts Wallace much more.
Wallace’s poor shooting was an outlier game, as he shot 42% from 3 in the regular season, and he is one of the Thunder’s best defensive players. He was excellent in guarding Irving, so I expect him to get significant minutes tonight.
Wallace went over this line in 35-of-48 games (73%) when he played 20-28 minutes this season.
Dallas puts a lot of on-ball pressure on SGA and Williams, so role players are often left open, which should help Wallace get good looks tonight.
Wallace scores 42% of his points from corner 3s, and Dallas allows the fifth-most corner 3s in the playoffs (out of 16 teams), and allowed fourth most (out of 30 teams) in the regular season. Dallas allows the most spot-up points in the playoffs, and 60% of Wallace’s points are via spot-up shooting.
