Best bets for Thursday's March Madness games
Quotes from oddsmakers on every game, plus over 30 best bets from respected handicappers
March Madness is upon us, and the action is coming fast and furious at sportsbooks across the country. With legalized sports betting now available in 38 U.S. states, this will be the most-bet NCAA tournament ever.
We’ve already seen the impact of North Carolina’s legalization on the tourney, as multiple sportsbooks told me this week that the Tar Heels are rising quickly up odds boards and are the No. 2 most-bet team and No. 2 liability behind either UConn or Kentucky.
One oddsmaker told me, “Kentucky futures for us is the worst result I’ve seen since being here. It would quite, quite bad, bigger than any Super Bowl liability I’ve seen.”
I’ve spoken with multiple oddsmakers over the past few days, and in this file (and one I’ll release tomorrow on Friday’s tourney games), I’ve compiled their thoughts on every first-round matchup, along with aggregated picks from a bunch of really sharp college basketball handicappers and public betting numbers from DraftKings and BetMGM.
I’ll be adding to this file with more picks and quotes from conversations with oddsmakers as they happen over the next few days, so be sure to check back often.
I’m always looking to improve this experience for subscribers, so feel free to let me know what else you’d like to see in some of these entries. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s a great time to do so heading into March Madness.
Enjoy!
No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Drake (-1, 137.5)
DraftKings betting splits: 70% of bets, 84% of $$ on Drake -1
10:05 p.m. ET
“Washington State we opened -1.5. We went down to -1 and then flipped to Drake -1, went back to PK and settled at Drake -1. Total opened at 138, 137.5 is the current number and no movement since then. Drake is one of those 10 seeds that’s been around a while and has a quality basketball program. Feeling from public is that they could win a few games.” — Johnny Avello, DraftKings Sportsbook director
Best bets
Drake ML -120 — Sam Panayotovich, Fox Sports/NESN
Drake +1.5 — Matt Youmans, VSiN
Drake +1.5 — Thomas Casale, CBS SportsLine
Drake ML -130 — Tim Murray, VSiN
Drake -1 — Matthew Winick, ScoreBet
Drake ML -110 — Julian Edlow, DK Network
Drake -1 — Jim Root, Three-Man Weave
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State (-1.5, 130.5)
DraftKings betting splits: 64% of bets, 60% of $$ on Michigan State -1.5
12:15 p.m. ET
“We opened Michigan State -2, down to -1 now. They bet the total over, opened 127.5 to 130.5. I don’t know if the feeling is out there that MSU has a run in them. I think they’re playing a little bit better towards end of the season. It seems like they’re struggling.” — Avello
Best bets
Mississippi State +1.5 — Sammy P
Mississippi State +1.5 — Mike Randle, FTN Network
Mississippi State ML +100 — Julian Edlow
Mississippi State _1.5 — Adam Burke
No. 6 BYU (-9.5, 142) vs. No. 11 Duquesne
DraftKings betting splits: 65% of bets, 54% of $$ on Duquesne -9.5
12:40 p.m. ET
“That’s a game that’s really run on us. We opened this game BYU -5.5 on Sunday night. We immediately went to -6. From that point on to now, 7, 7.5, 9, 9.5. Bettors were having none of -5.5. They thought BYU is a much better team. That one we’re long on the tooth on, you might say.” — Avello
Best bets