Best bets for Thursday Night Football: Steelers-Browns
Info from bookmakers and 15 best bets from sharp handicappers for tonight's game
We’ve had two straight weeks of quality Thursday Night Football games, and tonight we have … well, it’s a Thursday night with an NFL game on, so we can’t complain too much. The 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are only 3.5-point road favorites at the 2-8 Cleveland Browns. The Steelers have consistently rewarded bettors this season, tied for the NFL’s best mark against the spread at 8-2. The Browns? It hasn’t mattered too much if it’s been Deshaun Watson or Jameis Winston at quarterback, as they’ve gone 3-7 ATS.
“Opened Steelers laying 4.5 on the road and the total at 40.5,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata, texted me. “Total is down four points from where we opened it, clearly it was too high. We’ve seen some respected money early on the Browns. They took respected money last week, it seems to be since Jameis Winston came in that you’ve seen some sharper play on them weekly. I think the public is going to be all over Pittsburgh in this one. It is a short turnaround for them and a big spot vs. Baltimore, so maybe a letdown spot, but I’m of the opinion that you can’t go against Mike Tomlin at this point.”
The betting public is indeed all over Pittsburgh in this one, as at least 80% of bets and 65% of the total dollars wagered at every sportsbook I checked in with are on the Steelers to cover.
A few notable trends from ESPN Stats & Information on the game:
Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL this season. The Steelers are 18-9 ATS over the past two seasons, second best behind the Lions
The Steelers have covered five straight games, tied for their longest single-season cover streak in the Mike Tomlin era.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Browns are 1-4 ATS at hom
The Browns have covered four straight games on short rest and are 7-2 ATS in that role under head coach Kevin Stefanski
The Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games as favorites
Below is some public betting information from several sportsbooks, along with 15 best bets for the game from respected handicappers. I’ll be adding to this file as we approach kickoff.
Good luck tonight!
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Sportsbook information for Thursday Night Football
BetMGM
Most bet (tickets) Steelers-Browns player props
George Pickens over 58.5 receiving yards (-130)
Russell Wilson over 182.5 passing yards (-150)
Najee Harris over 17.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Jameis Winston over 216.5 passing yards (-115)
Najee Harris over 67.5 rushing yards (-110)
Most bet (tickets) Steelers-Browns players to score anytime touchdown
George Pickens +225
PIT Defense/Special Teams +700
Najee Harris +105
David Njoku +400
Nick Chubb +150
Most bet (tickets) Steelers-Browns players to score 1st touchdown
Najee Harris +400
George Pickens +750
Nick Chubb +600
PIT Defense/Special Teams +3000
Pat Freiermuth +1500
DraftKings
ESPN BET
80.6% of bets and 64.3% of handle are on Steelers (-3.5, opened –4.5)
80.4% of bets and 93.1% of handle are on Steelers ML (-190)
47.8% of bets and 57% of handle are on UNDER (36.5, opened 40.5)
Circa
BetRivers
Steelers (-3.5, -195 ML) at Browns (+160 ML), O/U 37
Moneyline: 95% money, 89% tickets on Steelers
Spread: 80% money, 78% tickets on Steelers
Over/Under: 65% money, 70% tickets on Over
Player props ranked by largest % of total game handle:
1. Najee Harris o17.5 total yards of longest rush (-143) -- 1.4%
2. Najee Harris anytime TD (+100) -- 1.3%
3. George Pickens anytime TD (+185) -- 1.1%
Player props ranked by largest % of total game tickets:
1. Najee Harris anytime TD (+100) -- 3.2%
2. George Pickens anytime TD (+185) -- 2.6%
3. Nick Chubb anytime TD (+132) -- 1.6%
15 best bets for Thursday Night Football
Browns +3.5 — Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports Bet
Browns +3.5 — Sharp Hunter app