Best bets for Texas-Ohio State College Football Playoff semifinal
Pro bettor Paul Stone's best bet on the game and betting info from the books
The College Football Playoff semifinals continue on Friday with No. 8 Ohio State (-6, 53) as a sizable favorite against No. 5 Texas at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Texas will have a definite home-field advantage, but it may not matter against the Buckeyes, who have clearly looked like the best team in the CFP during two dominant wins over Tennessee and top-ranked Oregon.
It’s no surprise, then, that the betting public is backing Ohio State, with several sportsbooks reporting over 80% of bets and total dollars wagered on the Buckeyes to cover. This line opened around Ohio State -4.5 at most books, got as high as -6.5 and has settled at -6 or -5.5 at most shops.
“We opened Ohio State -4.5 before sharp money quickly bet this up to -6.5,” Seamus Magee, BetMGM trader texted me today. “Then we got some Texas buyback and settled in at Ohio State -6. Bettors who like Ohio State State look like they’re backing the Buckeyes to cover the spread, while there are no shortage of bettors taking a shot on the Texas ML. Best result for the book is an Ohio State win and Texas cover of +6.”
The biggest wager I’ve seen so far is a $90,000 bet at BetMGM on the Longhorns ML at +185 odds. I’m sure there will be some six-figure wagers flowing in Thursday night and Friday before kickoff.
Below, you’ll find best bets on the game from several handicappers, and public betting information on the game from sportsbooks. I also asked pro bettor Paul Stone for his handicap for the game, along with his best bet.
Good luck with your wagers!
BetMGM
Most bet (tickets) Ohio State-Texas player props
1. Jeremiah Smith to score anytime TD -125
2. Jeremiah Smith to score 1st TD +550
3. Treveyon Henderson over 22.5 receiving yards
4. Henderson under 47.5 rushing yards
5. Jeremiah Smith over 86.5 receiving yards
Spread:
Opened: Ohio State -4.5, now Ohio State -6
73% of bets, 72% of $$ on Ohio State
Total: Opened 54.5, now 53.5
69% of bets, 64% of money on Over
DraftKings
ESPN BET
77% of bets and 84.5% of handle are on Ohio State (-6, opened –5)
79.2% of bets and 84.8% of handle are on Ohio State ML (-225)
83.1% of bets and 76.1% of handle are on OVER (53.5, opened 54.5)
BetRivers
Ohio State (-6.5, -245 ML) vs. Texas (+200 ML), O/U 53.5
ML: 85% money, 84% tickets on Ohio State
Spread: 54% money on Texas, 71% tickets on Ohio State
Over/Under: 63% money on Under, 79% tickets on Over
Best Bets
No. 8 Ohio State (-6, 52.5) vs. No. 5 Texas
Friday, Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Paul Stone: As sports bettors, we can sometimes become prisoners of the moment and fall prey to recency bias. But it’s difficult to ignore the dominance displayed by Ohio State in its opening two College Football Playoff victories over a pair of solid opponents in No. 7 Tennessee and top-ranked Oregon.
First of all, the Buckeyes jumped all over both opponents from the opening bell, leading Tennessee by 21 just 12 minutes into the game and Oregon by 24 points less than 20 minutes into that game. Ohio State had a combined 973 yards of offense in those two games (8 yards per play), while only allowing 532 total yards (3.8 yards per play).
Texas has had difficulty running the ball at times versus the better teams on its schedule and Ohio State might be the best team it has faced. The Buckeyes only allow an average of 93 yards per game and just 2.7 yards per carry. The Longhorns struggled to run the ball in their CFP quarterfinal win against Arizona State, mustering just 53 yards on 30 carries. Texas has to get pressure on Will Howard and put him under duress to have a chance. Collin Simmons (14 TFL) was the top freshman of the year, he’s going to have to come up big as well and force Howard into some quick decisions and hope that the Longhorns win the all-important turnover battle.
In hindsight the loss to Michigan might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Ohio State. Instead of going into the playoffs on a seven-game winning streak, they went in with people questioning the team and their coach. They’ve shown they are the best team in the country when all things are clicking.
Paul Stone’s Pick: Ohio State -5.5