Best bets for NFL Wild-Card Weekend

Over 50 best bets from respected handicappers and an interview with an oddsmaker on betting action for every game

Photo by Nils Huenerfuerst on Unsplash

The long NFL regular season is over, and we have a very compelling slate of four NFL playoff games over the next two days. Favorites went 1-1 on Saturday, with the Houston Texans (+3) beating the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 and the Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) handling their business in a 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The betting public is all over the Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5 vs. Green Bay Packers) today, as 71% of wagers and 79% of money is on the Eagles to cover at DraftKings Sportsbook.

I wrote more about NFL home-field advantage and how it’s declined over the years in an article for The Athletic, so be sure to give that a read as well.

Below, I’ve aggregated more than 50 best bets from respected handicappers on the weekend’s NFL playoff games for you, along with public betting info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers and ESPN BET and an action report on every game from Thomas Gable (sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City) and a FanDuel trader.

If you haven’t already, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. It’s only $8/month and you’ll get access to Substack Lives, the paid chat and more. I’ll add more sharp plays from my conversations with oddsmakers in the paid chat throughout the weekend.

Good luck with your wagers!

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BetMGM public betting info

Most bet player props (tickets)

1. Josh Allen over 40.5 rushing yards -115

2. Josh Jacobs over 17.5 receiving yards -150

3. Jayden Daniels over 47.5 rushing yards -140

4. Marvin Mims over 38.5 receiving yards -130

5. Jalen McMillan over 50.5 receiving yards -130

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ESPN BET

Sunday’s games

Broncos at Bills

• 70.2% of bets and 71.1% of handle are on Bills (-8, opened –8.5)

• 88.1% of bets and 85.7% of handle are on Bills ML (-500)

• 76.2% of bets and 83.4% of handle are on OVER (47.5, opened 47.5)

Packers at Eagles

• 68.6% of bets and 81.4% of handle are on Eagles (-5, opened –3.5)

• 82% of bets and 77.2% of handle are on Eagles ML (-250)

• 72.23% of bets and 65.1% of handle are on OVER (45.5, opened 46.5)

Commanders at Buccaneers

• 50.3% of bets and 51.4% of handle are on Commanders (+3, opened +2.5)

• 54.7% of bets and 57.3% of handle are on Commanders ML (+135)

• 80.6% of bets and 83.8% of handle are on OVER (50.5, opened 49.5)

Monday’s game

Vikings at Rams

• 56.4% of bets and 50.6% of handle are on Vikings (-3, opened –2.5*)

• 65.7% of bets and 50.2% of handle are on Vikings ML (-150)

• 71.5% of bets and 89.2% of handle are on OVER (47.5, opened 47.5)

*line was Vikings -1 before venue change

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BetRivers

Strongest spread plays by largest % of game spread handle:

1. Eagles -5 vs GB: 88.3%

2. Buccaneers -3 vs. WAS: 71.0%

3. Bills -9 vs. DEN: 67.3%

4. Rams +2.5 vs. MIN: 58.2%

Photo by Sebastien Gabriel on Unsplash

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Best bets for every NFL playoff game

Sunday

Broncos at Bills (-9, 47.5)

Gable: “Currently sitting Bills -9, we opened -8.5 and quickly went to 9. Not going to see it dip below that for teaser reasons. More Bills money than Broncos so far, but not a huge decision. Total hasn’t moved much, 47 up to 47.5.”

FanDuel trader: Sunday will kick off with the Bills hosting the Broncos. Fresh off what could be an MVP season, the book is hoping that Josh Allen stays out of the end zone as he has been a very popular Any Time Touchdown Scorer pick. Surprisingly, he is only our second most bet player for this market, as his quarterback counterpart Bo Nix has almost double the number of bets as Josh Allen in second place. One of our FanDuel Weekly Specials: Josh Allen and Bo Nix to combine for 3+ rushing TDs has also been extremely popular among customers this week.”

Best bets

Bills -9 — Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports