Best bets for Monday Night Football: Browns-Broncos

Recapping Sunday's Week 13 NFL games and 10 best bets for MNF

Photo by David Lusvardi on Unsplash

It was another mixed NFL Sunday for sportsbooks in Week 13, as underdogs went 7-4 against the spread but the most-bet favorite (Buffalo Bills -6) crushed the San Francisco 49ers 35-10 in the snow on Sunday Night Football. It continues a recent trend of the public cashing in on the final game of the day.

“Really good day for the guests,” Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos sportsbook director, texed me on Sunday night. “We didn’t get a big moneyline underdog — Bears, Patriots, Raiders (on Friday), and Panthers all found ways to lose. We’re big 49ers fans tonight!”

“Forgettable day,” John Murray, executive director at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said on Sunday night. “Needed Carolina outright to win anything significant. Small winner or small loser depending on the Bills’ outcome, which doesn’t look super.”

It wasn’t all bad for the books, as the second- and third-most wagered sides by total dollars at BetMGM sportsbooks (Bengals -3 and Vikings -3.5) both didn’t cash for bettors.

Tonight, we have an important game in the AFC playoff picture, as the Denver Broncos (-6, 42) host the Cleveland Browns. I’ll watch just about any NFL game in its entirety, but I have to admit — there’s isn’t a whole lot that excites me about this matchup.

Here are a few notable trends from ESPN Stats & Information:

• The Broncos are 5-0 ATS this season as favorites.

• The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

• The Broncos are 6-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

• Jameis Winston is 15-9-1 ATS as an underdog of at least four points in his career.

• Browns team totals are 9-2 to the under this season, best in the NFL.

“For tonight, we’re at Broncos -6,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, texted on Monday morning. “Small decision presently, but definitely parlay and teaser liability tied into Denver from yesterday.”

Below, I’ve compiled 10 best bets on the game from respected bettors and public betting information from a variety of sportsbooks. As always, I’ll update this file on BFawkes22.substack.com as we approach kickoff with more info.

Have a great Monday and remember that my Black Friday special offer (40% off a yearly subscription) ends tonight!

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Public betting info

DraftKings

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Circa Sports

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BetMGM

• 80% of bets, 79% of $$ on Broncos -6

• 56% of bets, 46% of $$ on OVER 42

Five most bet Broncos-Browns player props (by tickets):

1. Courtland Sutton over 61.5 receiving yards

2. Jerry Jeudy over 57.5 receiving yards

3. Sutton over 22.5 longest reception

4. Devaughn Vele over 34.5 receiving yards

5. Jameis Winston over 21.5 pass completions

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BetRivers

Browns (+220 ML) at Broncos (-6, -278 ML). O/U 41.5.
Moneyline: 88% money, 86% tickets on Broncos
Spread: 76% money, 73% tickets on Broncos
Over/Under: 60% money, 68% tickets on Over

Player Props, ranked by largest % of total game handle:
1. Javonte Williams u34.5 rush yds (+100) -- 2.5%
2. Lil'Jordan Humphrey u2.5 receptions (-215) -- 1.2%
3. Nick Chubb anytime TD (+150) -- 1.1%

Player Props, ranked by largest % of total game tickets:
1. Nick Chubb anytime TD (+150) -- 2.7%
2. Courtland Sutton anytime TD (+125) -- 1.6%
3. Bo Nix o1.5 TD Passes thrown (+120) -- 1.5%

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ESPN BET

• 68.5% of bets and 74.6% of handle are on Broncos (-6.5, opened –5.5)

• 83.9% of bets and 67.4% of handle are on Broncos ML (-280)

• 57.4% of bets and 56% of handle are on OVER (42.5, opened 41.5)

Photo by Jake Willett on Unsplash

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Best bets for Monday Night Football

Browns +6 — Sharp Hunter app

Broncos-Browns UNDER 42 — Sharp Hunter app

Browns +6 — Stuckey, Action