Best bets for Monday Night Football: Ravens-Chargers

Recapping Sunday's Week 12 NFL games and 10 best bets for MNF

Photo by David Lusvardi on Unsplash

It was a mixed NFL Sunday for sportsbooks in Week 12, as favorites went 6-4-1 against the spread, but the most-bet favorite — the Detroit Lions — easily dispatched the Indianapolis Colts 24-6 as 7.5-point favorites. If you didn’t read my article for The Athletic about why sportsbooks dislike the Lions at the moment, you can check it out here. Overs went 8-3 on the day. The Sunday night game was a bad one for the books, as the Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) routed the Los Angeles Rams 37-20 and game flew over the total.

Caesars Sportsbook likely did a little better than most books on the game, as a bettor at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas placed a $1 million wager on Rams +3. That’s a tough way to end a weekend in Vegas.

“Rough Sunday night with the Eagles winning and covering, and the over getting there,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata, texted me this morning.

“We did OK,” John Murray, executive director at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said on Monday morning. “We lost all of our big decisions on the Colts, Giants and Raiders, but the Commanders and Texans losing knocked out so many ML parlays that we were able to scratch out a winning day.”

Tonight, we have another great game as the 7-4 Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) are small road favorites against the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers in a critical AFC game.

Here are a few notable trends from ESPN Stats & Information:

• The Chargers are 8-2 ATS this season, and have covered four straight games, their longest streak since 2020-2021 (five).

• The Chargers are 5-0 ATS this season at home. A cover tonight would match their longest home ATS winning streak in the Super Bowl era (2007, 1992, 1971-1972).

• Overs are 9-2 in Ravens games this season, the highest over rate in the NFL.

• Lamar Jackson is 16-8 ATS in prime-time games in his career (19-5 SU), including 9-4 ATS/SU on the road. Justin Herbert is 11-7 ATS in prime-time games.

“Good action for MNF,” Gable texted me today. “Ravens down to -2.5 as most of the Chargers money came in at +3.”

Below, I’ve compiled 10 best bets on the game from respected bettors and public betting information from five different sportsbooks. As always, I’ll update this file on BFawkes22.substack.com as we approach kickoff with more info.

Have a great Monday!

---

Public betting info

BetMGM

Most bet (tickets) Ravens-Chargers player props

1. Justin Herbert over 255.5 passing yards (-140)

2. Will Dissly under 41.5 receiving yards (+100)

3. Lamar Jackson over 42.5 rushing yards (-120)

4. Justin Herbert under 0.5 interception (+110)

5. Isaiah Likely over 2.5 receptions (+105)

Most bet (tickets) Ravens-Chargers players to score anytime touchdown

1. Derrick Henry -350

2. Zay Flowers +155

3. Lamar Jackson +190

4. Quentin Johnston +190

5. Mark Andrews +175

Most bet (tickets) Ravens-Chargers players to score 1st touchdown

1. Derrick Henry +310

2. Lamar Jackson +1000

3. J.K. Dobbins +550

4. Zay Flowers +1100

5. Ladd McConkey +1200

---

BetRivers

Ravens (-2.5, -152 ML) at Chargers (+125 ML). O/U 50.5
Moneyline: 88% money & 73% tickets on Ravens
Spread: 69% money & 67% tickets on Ravens
Over/Under: 74% money & 65% tickets on Over

Player props, ranked by largest % of total game money:

1. Derrick Henry anytime TD (-250) -- 2.6%
2. Justin Herbert o18.5 rush yards (-118) -- 1.3%
3. Zay Flowers o39.5 receiving yards (-315) -- 1.0%

Player props, ranked by largest % of total game tickets:

1. Derrick Henry anytime TD (-250) -- 8.6%
2. J.K. Dobbins anytime TD (-121) -- 2.4%
3. Quentin Johnston anytime TD (+150) -- 1.8% 

---

DraftKings

---

ESPN BET

• 70.3% of bets and 64.8% of handle are on Ravens (-2.5, opened –2.5)  

• 71.6% of bets and 77.6% of handle are on Ravens ML (–145) 

• 62.6% of bets and 55% of handle are on OVER (50.5, opened 47.5) 

Circa Sports

---

Best bets for Monday Night Football

Ravens -2.5 — Sharp Hunter app✅