Best bets for Monday Night Football: Bengals-Cowboys

Ten best bets for MNF from respected handicappers and betting info from sportsbooks

Photo by Trac Vu on Unsplash

The biggest betting story on Sunday was the $3.1 million wager from a Kentucky bettor on the Philadelphia Eagles ML at -700 odds (vs. the Carolina Panthers), placed at Circa Sports. The Eagles held on to win 22-16 over the Panthers, but if Xavier Legette holds to that ball and scores a TD who knows how the game ends.

The Miami Dolphins (-6) winning 32-26 in overtime over the New York Jets was a game that hurt some sportsbooks, including the Borgata. As Thomas Gable, the sportsbook director there texted me yesterday, “High six-figure swing with that Miami/Jets game. Not in our favor. With all the parlay and teaser liability that was going into the Miami spread and money line, it was a costly loss.”

Underdogs went 7-4 ATS on Sunday, while favorites won eight of the 11 games. Unders went 6-5.

Tonight, we have an important game with two teams on the fringe of the playoff picture, as the Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 50) play at the Dallas Cowboys. It feels like the Bengals have had “must-win” games for a while now, but are 1-4 SU in their last five. The Cowboys? Well, they have a nice stadium.

This line has been on the move today, with Circa down to Bengals -4.5 as of this posting (opened -5.5).

Here are a few notable trends from ESPN Stats & Information:

• Joe Burrow is 11-4 ATS in his career as a road favorite, including 11-2 ATS when laying less than seven points.

• The Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS at home.

• The Cowboys are 3-10 ATS as underdogs over the last two seasons.

Below, I’ve compiled 10 best bets on the game from respected bettors and public betting information from a variety of sportsbooks. As always, I’ll update this file on BFawkes22.substack.com as we approach kickoff with more info, including sharp plays from oddsmakers.

Have a great Monday!

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Public betting info

DraftKings

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Circa Sports

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BetMGM

Most bet (tickets) Bengals-Cowboys player props

1. Brandin Cook over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)

2. KaVontae Turpin over 11.5 receiving yards (-130)

3. Cooper Rush over 234.5 passing yards (-115)

4. Ja’Marr Chase over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)

5. Joe Burrow over 275.5 passing yards (-115)

Most bet (tickets) Bengals-Cowboys players to score anytime touchdown

1. Ja’Marr Chase -155

2. CeeDee Lamb +165

3. Tee Higgins +130

4. Chase Brown -200

5. Rico Dowdle -120

Most bet (tickets) Bengals-Cowboys players to score 1st touchdown

1. Ja’Marr Chase +450

2. Chase Brown +400

3. Tee Higgins +800

4. CeeDee Lamb +1100

5. Rico Dowdle +600

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ESPN BET

• 67.3% of bets and 60.5% of handle are on Bengals (-5.5, opened –5.5)

• 79.1% of bets and 79.2% of handle are on Bengals ML (-240)

• 74.1% of bets and 75.4% of handle are on OVER (49.5, opened 47.5)

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BetRivers

Bengals (-5.5, -245 ML) at Cowboys (+200 ML), O/U 49.5

Moneyline: 69% money & 82% tickets on Bengals
Spread: 61% money & 65% tickets on Bengals
Over/Under: 83% money & 82% tickets on Over

Most wagered-on player props by largest % of total game handle:
1. Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (-157) -- 2.3%
2. Chase Brown anytime TD (-210) -- 1.5%
3. Chase Brown u17.5 rush attempts (-135) -- 1.0%

Most popular player props by largest % of total game tickets:
1. Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (-157) -- 6.0%
2. Chase Brown anytime TD (-210) -- 3.5%
3. CeeDee Lamb anytime TD (+140) -- 2.1%

Photo by Jake Willett on Unsplash

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Best bets for Monday Night Football

Cowboys +5.5 — James Salinas, pro bettor