Best bets, insights from four oddsmakers on Final Four games
Public bettors are continuing to back UConn, NC State
It seems like only a short time ago that we were reacting to Selection Sunday, but somehow the Final Four is already here. There are two great matchups on both the men’s and women’s side, but this file today will deal with the two men’s games.
For those who hadn’t read or seen, Caitlin Clark’s Iowa team beating LSU on Monday was the most-bet women’s college basketball game ever at a multitude of sportsbooks — and even the biggest handle for a women’s sporting event at several books, surpassing USWNT World Cup games. FanDuel reported a 28% increase in handle over the 2023 women’s NCAA championship game between Iowa and LSU and the game had more dollars wagered on it than any MLB, NBA or NHL game at many books I checked in with.
“Both women’s NCAA tournament games [on Monday night] outperformed all six NBA games in total bets and handle,” Seamus Magee, a trader at BetMGM said. “LSU vs. Iowa was the most bet women’s basketball game ever, and UConn vs. USC was top 3.”
The storylines are incredibly intriguing on the women’s side and will continue to be, especially if Clark’s Iowa team meets South Carolina in the final.
One the men’s side, it’s UConn and everyone else. The Huskies are 11.5 or 12-point favorites at sportsbooks, which is only the fourth time that has happened in the past 50 years. They have won (and covered) 10 straight games in the NCAA tournament, the first time that’s been done since 1979 and the advent of the seeding era. And perhaps most impressively: Despite the high numbers, they’ve covered those 10 games by an average of almost 14 PPG.
Below I take a look at where the public is betting at FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings and Fanatics, along with quotes from bookmakers on both Purdue-NC State and UConn-Alabama and best bets from a bunch of handicappers. I’ll continue to add to this file up to tip-off.
Enjoy!
No. 11 NC State vs. No. 1 Purdue (-9, 146)
6:09 p.m. ET
DraftKings betting splits: 66% of bets, 57% of $$ on NC State +9
BetMGM betting splits: 67% of bets, 66% of $$ on NC State +9.5
Fanatics betting splits: 82% of bets, 88% of $$ on NC State +9
FanDuel betting splits: 73% of bets, 73% of $$ on NC State +9.5
Most-bet game props at BetMGM:
DJ Burns Jr. over 14.5 points (+100)
Zach Edey over 13.5 rebounds (-160)
Zach Edey over 26.5 points (-120)
DJ Horne over 16.5 points (-105)
Braden Smith over 6.5 assists (-150)
“We’ve only scratched the surface with the handle, but early ticket count and money clearly favors NC State. So far the public loves the Cinderella story! Plus, some of the past tourney struggles of Purdue. It feels like 1983 all over again for NC State. “ — Chuck Esposito, Stations sportsbook director
“Bettors love NC State. The Wolfpack are attracting heavy action on the money line and spread; additionally, NC State is our biggest liability to win the NCAA tournament. BetMGM will be screaming ‘boiler up!’ on Saturday as Purdue winning is the best outcome for us.” – Seamus Magee, BetMGM trading manager
“We've seen an overwhelming amount of action on the Wolfpack: we've taken 94% of bets on the NC State moneyline and 77% of spread bets on the Wolfpack. NC State is also by far our largest liability to win the national championship as customers have enjoyed being along for the Cinderella run.” — FanDuel trader
“NC State is actually seeing most of the money so far. We stayed steady at 9, I can’t say there has been anything sharp on them. Nobody that I’d say we should move the number. NC State ML not as popular as the spread, but some people are taking a shot on that as well. I have NC State playing at its highest power rating for the year.” — Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in New Jersey
Best bets:
NC State +9.5 — Matt Youmans, VSiN
NC State +9.5 — Julian Edlow, DK Network