Best 2024 Super Bowl bets from respected bettors
The best bets on Chiefs-Ravens from the experts themselves
It’s been a wild Super Bowl week so far here in Las Vegas, as the NFL media and fans have descended on the city. I was lucky enough to attend the NFL media party on Tuesday night at the F1 paddock and eat a steak served in a golden box at Papi Steak at Fontainebleau on Wednesday that probably cost as much as the rent for my first apartment when I was starting at ESPN. I was on Radio Row at the Mandalay Bay from Wednesday to Friday, going on a bunch of radio and TV shows, networking and catching up with old friends and former colleagues.
I even found five minutes to catch up with my guy Chris Berman and chat about his pick in the Super Bowl (he likes the Chiefs).
But you’re probably here more for betting insights on the game than hearing about my Vegas Super Bowl week. In short, the Super Bowl line is pretty much back where it began last Sunday night when it opened. Most sportsbooks opened 49ers -2.5 or -2, got bet down to 49ers -1, and that was the point of resistance for big, respected 49ers money. The line has been at 49ers -2 most of the week, with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and FanDuel among the books that have tested the waters at 49ers -2.5.
Oddsmakers I’ve spoken to this week think that the line won’t get to pick-em and is unlikely to get to 49ers -3, so we’ve probably seen the most of the line movement. The total has remained pretty much at 47.5, with the majority of bets and handle on the OVER.
As of right now, there has only been one $1 million bet, which was on the 49ers ML -125 from a bettor at Caesars Sportsbook in Michigan last week. However, a bettor wagered $668,181 on the 49ers -2 at Caesars Palace in Vegas on Friday, which is the biggest spread wager on the Super Bowl so far.
Here are the five biggest reported Super Bowl wagers, as of this morning:
1. $1 million on 49ers ML -120 at Caesars
2. $668,181 on 49ers -2 (-110) at Caesars
3. $600,000 on 49ers ML -120 at DraftKings
4. $500,000 on 49ers ML -125 at Caesars
5. $500,000 on 49ers ML -125 at DK
As you can see, all five bets of $500,000 or more have been on the 49ers, while the public continues to be on the Chiefs. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the majority of bets in 23 of 24 states with online sports betting are backing Kansas City to cover — the lone exception is New Jersey. In Kansas, as you would expect, the betting is even more skewed towards the Chiefs: 87% of bets and 89% of the handle is on Kansas City to cover in the state.
The lone respected voice on the Chiefs? None other than legendary bettor Billy Walters, who told the Las Vegas Review-Journal on Thursday that he likes Kansas City to cover and thinks the spread is four points off.
We’ll certainly be watching if — and when — Walters makes his wager(s) on Kansas City.
Rather than giving out some Super Bowl bets from me that are as good a coin flip, I’ve instead compiled Super Bowl bets from a bunch of respected bettors on the bets they like. These are both from talking to some via email and text, reading their content or listening to their podcasts.
I’ll continue to add to this file over the weekend.