Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
An oddsmaker previews Nuggets-Wolves and Knicks-Pacers

An oddsmaker previews Nuggets-Wolves and Knicks-Pacers

How bettors are wagering on both series, along with best bets from handicappers

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Ben Fawkes
May 04, 2024
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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
An oddsmaker previews Nuggets-Wolves and Knicks-Pacers
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We still have one first-round series remaining the NBA Playoffs, as the Orlando Magic (-4.5) staved off elimination and pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to Game 7 in a 103-96 victory on Thursday night. In the Western Conference, the Dallas Mavericks (-8.5) pulled away in the second half to close out the Los Angeles Clippers 114-101.

But Saturday night begins potentially the most anticipated playoff series so far, as the Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Denver Nuggets (-4.5) at 5 p.m. MT. The Nuggets are roughly a -200 favorite at sportsbooks, while the Wolves are a +170 underdog. Denver, of course, dispatched Minnesota in five games in last season’s playoffs, but it was perhaps the Nuggets’ most challenging series en route to a championship — and this year’s Wolves team is much stronger, including a healthy Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels. Not to mention Anthony Edwards taking his game to a new level (yes, I have a smidge of bias as a Wolves fan).

The New York Knicks are a bigger favorite (-245) against the No. 6 seed Indiana Pacers (+200), in a series that will be an interesting clash of styles.

I asked Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City about the betting action so far on these series, as well as a series prediction for each from him.

Enjoy!

No. 2 Denver Nuggets (-205) vs. No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves (-170)

Game 1 odds: Nuggets -4.5, 208.5

Betting splits for Game 1:

DraftKings: 50% of bets, 51% of $$ on Nuggets -4.5

BetMGM: 61% of bets, 54% of $$ on Nuggets -4.5

Most bet (tickets) Nuggets-Timberwolves player props at BetMGM

  1. Naz Reid over 12.5 points/rebounds/assists (-135)

  2. Rudy Gobert under 12.5 rebounds (-130)

  3. Karl-Anthony Towns over 7.5 rebounds (-105)

  4. Towns over 18.5 points (-105)

  5. Nikola Jokic over 27.5 points (-120)

Series betting action:

“The Nuggets are -200 favorites here. As far as the series price goes and Game 1, it’s been mostly Wolves money. We’re at Nuggets -4.5 for Game 1, but even the money line is getting bet for Minnesota. Series price has been the same thing, mostly Minnesota for the series.” — Gable

Oddsmaker prediction:

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