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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
80 Week 9 NFL best bets from sharp handicappers
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80 Week 9 NFL best bets from sharp handicappers

Best bets to make from respected handicappers and sharp plays from sportsbooks

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Ben Fawkes
Nov 03, 2024
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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
80 Week 9 NFL best bets from sharp handicappers
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Las Vegas Nevada billboard under white and blue sky

Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and there are a few games that are shaping up to be big decisions for sportsbooks. The biggest is the Washington Commanders (-4) at the New York Giants. Coming off Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary and given how explosive the Commanders’ offense has looked compared to the stuck-in-molasses attack from the Giants, it’s easy to see why the public like the road favorite. Over 85% of the bets and 80% of the total dollars wagered at DraftKings are on Washington to cover, and Commanders -4 is the most-bet game by both tickets and money at BetMGM sportsbooks.

The public also loves the high-flying Detroit Lions (-2.5/-3) at the Green Bay Packers, even though it appears Jordan Love will start. The Lions are the second-most bet game by both tickets and dollars wagered at BetMGM, and the second-most lopsided game by total bets at DraftKings, with 77% of the wagers on Detroit (and 68% of the money).

Below, I’ve aggregated 80 Week 8 NFL best bets from respected handicappers and public betting info from BetMGM and ESPN BET. I also give more sharp plays from my conversations with oddsmakers in my paid chat, so subscribe today!

Have a great Sunday!

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber


BetMGM Week 9 NFL public betting info

Most bet games (total bets)

  1. Commanders-Giants

  2. Lions-Packers

  3. Dolphins-Bills

Most bet teams (total bets)

  1. Commanders -4

  2. Lions -2.5

  3. Bills -6

Most bet games (total $$)

  1. Commanders -4

  2. Lions -2.5

  3. Bills -6

Most bet Overs (tickets)

  1. Lions-Packers 47.5

  2. Cowboys-Falcons 52

  3. Commanders-Giants 44.5

Most bet Unders (tickets)

  1. Chargers-Browns 42.5

  2. Patriots-Titans 38.5

  3. Raiders-Bengals 45.5

Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)

  1. Broncos +375

  2. Patriots +135

  3. Cowboys +140

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Most bet player props (tickets)

  1. De’Von Achane over 37.5 receiving yards (-130)

  2. Malik Nabers over 69.5 receiving yards (-145)

  3. A.J. Brown over 80.5 receiving yards (-115)

  4. Nick Chubb over 50.5 rushing yards (-140)

  5. Josh Downs over 62.5 receiving yards (-135)

Most bet first TD scorers (tickets)

  1. David Montgomery (DET) +525

  2. Derrick Henry (BAL) +300

  3. Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +450

  4. Brian Robinson Jr (WAS) +650

  5. James Cook (BUF) +500

Most bet anytime TD scorers (tickets)

  1. David Montgomery (DET) -140

  2. Chase Brown (CIN) -125

  3. Brian Robinson Jr (WAS) +110

  4. AJ Barner (SEA) +500

  5. Taysom Hill (NO) +185


DraftKings


ESPN BET

Raiders @ Bengals  

61.8% of bets and 60% of handle are on Bengals (-7, opened –7.5) 

56.8% of bets and 76.3% of handle are on Bengals ML (-360) 

53% of bets and 56.4% of handle are on OVER (45.5, opened 45.5) 

Commanders @ Giants 

84.5% of bets and 76.4% of handle are on Commanders (-4.5, opened –3.5) 

80.4% of bets and 94% of handle are on Commanders ML (-210) 

59.3% of bets and 53.8% of handle are on UNDER (44.5, opened 43.5) 

Cowboys @ Falcons 

55% of bets and 76.7% of handle are on Cowboys (+3.5, opened +2.5)  

37.1% of bets and 57% of handle are on Falcons ML (-175) 

68% of bets and 52.5% of handle are on OVER (52.5, opened 48.5)  

Broncos @ Ravens  

75% of bets and 56.2% of handle are on Broncos (+9, opened +9) 

28.4% of bets and 55.3% of handle are on Ravens ML (-425) 

69.1% of bets and 86.2% of handle are on OVER (46.5, opened 44.5) 

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Patriots @ Titans 

28.8% of bets and 51.7% of handle are on Titans (-3, opened –3.5) 

88% of bets and 89.6% of handle are on Pats ML (+145) 

60.1% of bets and 56.1% of handle are on UNDER (38.5, opened 38.5) 

Dolphins @ Bills  

16.9% of bets and 58% of handle are on Dolphins (+6.5, opened +6) 

72.3% of bets and 93.3% of handle are on Bills ML (-275) 

75.4% of bets and 72.3% of handle are on OVER (49.5, opened 48.5) 

Saints @ Panthers 

63.4% of bets and 56.2% of handle are on Saints (-7.5, opened –6.5)  

48.7% of bets and 74.2% of handle are on Saints ML (-340) 

53.3% of bets and 73.7% of handle are on UNDER (43.5, opened 44.5) 

Chargers @ Browns  

43.3% of bets and 61% of handle are on Browns (+1, opened +2.5) 

42.4% of bets and 56.1% of handle are on Chargers ML (-120) 

51% of bets and 56.4% of handle are on OVER (42.5, opened 39.5) 

Jaguars @ Eagles 

61.8% of bets and 60% of handle are on Eagles (-7.5, opened –7) 

56.8% of bets and 76.3% of handle are on Eagles ML (-340) 

53% of bets and 56.4% of handle are on OVER (46.5, opened 47.5) 

Bears @ Cardinals 

61.5% of bets and 83.7% of handle are on Bears (+2, opened +1) 

73.7% of bets and 62.4% of handle are on Bears ML (+110) 

65% of bets and 73.9% of handle are on OVER (44.5, opened 44.5) 

Lions @ Packers 

68% of bets and 60% of handle are on Lions (-2.5, opened –3.5) 

56.1% of bets and 65.2% of handle are on Lions ML (-140) 

34.6% of bets and 65% of handle are on UNDER (48.5, opened 48.5) 

Rams @ Seahawks  

74.7% of bets and 72.6% of handle are on Rams (-2, opened +1) 

64.5% of bets and 80.1% of handle are on Rams ML (-125) 

51.2% of bets and 60.9% of handle are on UNDER (47.5, opened 47.5) 

Colts @ Vikings 

44.6% of bets and 55.6% of handle are on Colts (+5.5, opened +7) 

50.7% of bets and 54.9% of handle are on Vikings ML (-240) 

74.5% of bets and 81.7% of handle are on OVER (46.5, opened 46.5) 

Buccaneers @ Chiefs – Monday Night Football  

37.1% of bets and 63.4% of handle are on Chiefs (-9, opened –8.5) 

53.1% of bets and 84% of handle are on Chiefs ML (-500) 

73.9% of bets and 87.3% of handle are on OVER (45.5, opened 44.5) 

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Photo by Simon Wilkes on Unsplash

Week 9 NFL best bets from handicappers

Early games

Browns +2 — Matt Brown, VSiN

Browns +2 — Matt Youmans, VSiN

Browns +1.5 — Chris Raybon, Action

Chargers-Browns OVER 42.5 — Adam Chernoff, Right Angle Sports

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