55 best bets for Commanders-Eagles and Bills-Chiefs today
Best bets from respected handicappers and where the sharp action is on both games
The big day is finally here, and we have two great NFL games to watch (and wager on) for the last time in many months. Savor it, my friends.
The Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 47.5) host the Washington Commanders in the early game, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 48.5) taking on the Buffalo Bills in the nightcap. The odds haven’t moved much over the past few days, although DraftKings is still hanging a Chiefs -1.5 if you’re interested in betting Kansas City.
“This Eagles-Commanders game is interesting because we don’t tend to see this much line movement for a conference championship game,” Christian Cippolini, a BetMGM trader, told me this week. “We opened -4.5, and it was bet up to -6. I did expect us to see this line come back towards the Commanders with Jalen Hurts’ injury, but this line hasn’t moved. We have taken more Commanders bets this week, which tells you that the respected action helped move us to -6. Book is rooting for Eagles from a futures standpoint and from a game standpoint.”
Joey Feazel, head football oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook, echoed the sharp action earlier in the week on Philly, noting, “We took a sharper bet at 4.5 to 5.5 where market was and now it’s at 6 where we expect it to remain. What we’re seeing action wise is what we see on a lot of these games — Commanders ML or Eagles spread. Decent amount of interest on Commanders ML, which is interesting.
I spoke with a lot of bookmakers this week and all of them reported good two-way action on the AFC Championship Game. There are sharps on both sides of the Buffalo-Kansas City matchup and oddsmakers didn’t expect a big decision either way, unless some other big bets came in today.
As I reported earlier this week, there was a $1.3 million wager on the Chiefs ML at -130 odds at Caesars on Monday, which would pay $1 million if the Chiefs win.
From Feazel: “We took a large wager on Caesars Palace on Monday on the Chiefs ML at -130. This is the big game, what’s always been the instant classic. Outside of that big wager, action is pretty much split. A little more money on the over than the under, which makes sense given these two offenses.”
The biggest bet on a total in either game I’ve seen is a $220,000 wager from a bettor in Nevada at Caesars Sportsbook on the UNDER 47.5 in Commanders-Eagles.
Below, I’ve aggregated 55 bets that respected handicappers have made on Sunday’s games, along with public betting information and betting splits from DraftKings and ESPN BET. I’ll be updating the file and paid chat with more information throughout the day.
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Good luck today!
DraftKings public betting info
DK betting splits are available here
ESPN BET
Commanders at Eagles
67.2% of bets and 50.1% of handle are on Commanders +6 (opened +5)
43.2% of bets and 54.9% of handle are on Eagles ML (-280)
78.8% of bets and 79.9% of handle are on OVER (47.5, opened 47.5)
Bills at Chiefs
70.1% of bets and 72.8% of handle are on Bills (+2, opened +1)
67.3% of bets and 56.7% of handle are on Bills ML (+110)
73.8% of bets and 72.3% of handle are on OVER (48.5, opened 48.5, was 47.5 Mon-Thurs)
BetMGM
Most bet Eagles-Commanders player props (tickets)
Saquon Barkley over 23.5 yards longest rush (-140)
Austin Ekeler over 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
AJ Brown over 66.5 receiving yards (-135)
Saquon Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards (-115)
Dallas Goedert over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
Most bet Eagles-Commanders players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)
Saquon Barkley -225
Terry McLaurin +140
Zach Ertz +300
AJ Brown +160
Jalen Hurts -115
Most bet Eagles-Commanders players to score 1st touchdown (tickets)
Saquon Barkley +350
Terry McLaurin +900
Jalen Hurts +525
AJ Brown +900
Zach Ertz +1800
Most bet Chiefs-Bills player props (tickets)
Dalton Kincaid over 31.5 receiving yards (-130)
Travis Kelce over 70.5 receiving yards (-115)
Noah Gray over 14.5 receiving yards (-130)
James Cook over 54.5 rushing yards (-140)
Josh Allen over 46.5 rushing yards (-115)
Most bet Chiefs-Bills players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)
Josh Allen -120
Travis Kelce +125
Xavier Worthy +200
James Cook +135
Kareem Hunt +180
Most bet Chiefs-Bills players to score 1st touchdown (tickets)
James Cook +800
Travis Kelce +850
Josh Allen +650
Kareem Hunt +1100
Xavier Worthy +1200
Best bets for NFL Championship Weekend
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 47.5)
Best bets
Commanders +6.5 — Chris Raybon, Action
Commanders +6.5 — Anthony Dabundo, The Ringer
Commanders team total OVER 20.5 — Anthony Dabundo
Commanders-Eagles OVER 47.5 — Chris Farley, pro bettor
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