Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
30 best bets for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round games

30 best bets for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round games

Best bets from handicappers and where the action is from sportsbook directors

Jan 19, 2025
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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
30 best bets for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round games
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Photo by Ameer Basheer on Unsplash

I certainly could’ve envisioned the Washington Commanders (+9.5) keeping it close against the Detroit Lions, but not winning outright. And not like that. What an impressive performance, and one that made for a great Saturday night for sportsbook managers across the country.

The Lions were a massive Super Bowl liability all season, and everyone had a Detroit teaser or money-line parlay attached to something this weekend — or even to Ohio State tomorrow in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. It’s been a rough few months for the sportsbooks with the public winning a lot of important games, but the Commanders did books a big favor last night.

Today, Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) are big home favorites against the Los Angeles Rams today, and the line has moved out to -7 at a few shops in Las Vegas, including Circa and Westgate — two books that cater more to sharp action. The public is certainly backing Philadelphia to cover.

“We’re pretty lopsided on the Eagles at the moment,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told me today. “Not terrible, but should be a decent-sized decision for us.”

In the game I’m most looking forward to this weekend, the Buffalo Bills (+1 vs. Baltimore Ravens) look like they will be home playoff underdogs for the first time at since they joined the NFL in 1970.

“Ravens-Bills is shaping up to be the highest handle game of the weekend,” Gable said. “We’re still sitting Ravens -1. Good two-way action.”

Below, I’ve aggregated 30 bets that respected handicappers have made on today’s NFL playoff games for you, along with public betting information and betting splits from DraftKings, BetMGM and ESPN BET.

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Good luck with your wagers today!

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DraftKings public betting info

  • DK betting splits are available here


BetMGM

Most bet player props (tickets)

  1. Saquon Barkley over 21.5 rushing attempts (-110)

  2. Saquon Barkely over 19.5 longest rush (-125)

  3. Saquon Barkley over 113.5 rushing yards (-110)

  4. Jalen Hurts under 16.5 pass completions (-130)

  5. Dallas Goedert over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)

Most bet players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)

  1. Saquon Barkley (-185)

  2. A.J. Brown (+150)

  3. Puka Nacua (+155)

  4. Kyren Williams (-115)

  5. Jalen Hurts (-120)

Most bet players to score 1st touchdown (tickets)

  1. Saquon Barkley (+425)

  2. Kyren Williams (+550)

  3. A.J. Brown (+900)

  4. Jalen Hurts (+550)

  5. Puka Nacua (+900)

Most bet player props (tickets)

  1. Lamar Jackson over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)

  2. Mark Andrews over 0.5 rushing yards (-140)

  3. Derrick Henry over 94.5 rushing yards (-130)

  4. Isaiah Likely over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

  5. Lamar Jackson over 9.5 rushing attempts (-110)

Most bet players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)

  1. Josh Allen (+110)

  2. James Cook (+105)

  3. Derrick Henry( -210)

  4. Isaiah Likely (+275)

  5. Lamar Jackson (+190)

Most bet players to score 1st touchdown (tickets)

  1. Derrick Henry (+450)

  2. James Cook (+750)

  3. Josh Allen (+750)

  4. Lamar Jackson (+1200)

  5. Mark Andrews (+1100)

green grass field
Photo by Petr Vyšohlíd on Unsplash

ESPN Bet

Rams at Eagles

  • 48.4% of bets and 71.4% of handle are on Eagles (-6.5, opened –6, was -6.5 Saturday)

  • 59.1% of bets and 73.5% of handle are on Eagles ML (-300)

  • 62.4% of bets and 61.3% of handle are on OVER (41.5, opened 45.5, was 43.5 Saturday)

Ravens at Bills

  • 46.6% of bets and 51.8% of handle are on Ravens (-1, opened +1, was –1.5 on Saturday)

  • 55.8% of bets and 54.7% of handle are on Bills ML (-105)

  • 52.09% of bets and 61% of handle are on OVER (51.5, opened 51.5)


Best bets for Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round games

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 43)

Best bets

Eagles -6.5 — Andy Molitor, Deep Dive podcast

Eagles -6 — Jason Logan, Covers

Eagles -6 — Sam Panayotovich, Chicken Dinner podcast

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