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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack

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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
25 early bets to make for NFL Championship Weekend

25 early bets to make for NFL Championship Weekend

Best bets that handicappers have already placed for Sunday's matchups

Jan 23, 2025
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Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
25 early bets to make for NFL Championship Weekend
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NFL Championship Weekend is upon us, and while my Minnesota Vikings won’t be playing (yet again), there are still two great matchups on Sunday for us to enjoy and wager on.

The Philadelphia Eagles (-6) host the Washington Commanders in the early game, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (-2) renewing their rivalry with the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen has never won two straight games outright as an underdog in his career, but has the most important opportunity of his career to do just that.

“We opened Eagles -5.5, which was higher than most places,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told me. “I was actually shocked when I saw 4 or 4.5’s open, as I was going to open at -6.5. We’re definitely going to need the Commanders. Outright upset would be fantastic for us, but I’ll take them to even cover the spread.”

Several bookmakers I’ve spoken with this week reported good two-way action on the AFC Championship Game and didn’t expect a big decision either way.

Below, I’ve aggregated 25 bets that respected handicappers have already made on Sunday’s games, along with public betting information and betting splits from DraftKings and ESPN BET. I’ll have a much more extensive file over the weekend.

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DraftKings public betting info

  • DK betting splits are available here

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ESPN Bet

Commanders at Eagles

  • 68% of bets and 53.7% of handle are on Commanders (+6.5, opened +5)

  • 39.9% of bets and 58.1% of handle are on Eagles ML (-280)

  • 83.4% of bets and 77.9% of handle are on OVER (47.5, opened 47.5)

Bills at Chiefs

  • 71.4% of bets and 73.5% of handle are on Bills (+2, opened +1)

  • 67.7% of bets and 50.5% of handle are on Bills ML (+110)

  • 72.6% of bets and 59.3% of handle are on OVER (47.5, opened 48.5)


Best bets for NFL Championship Weekend

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 47.5)

Best bets

Commanders +6.5 — Chris Raybon, Action

Commanders-Eagles OVER 47.5 — Chris Farley, pro bettor

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