20 NFC season win total bets to make

Best bets on NFC over/unders from a group of respected handicappers

With Week 1 of the NFL preseason in the books (underdogs went 10-6 ATS and unders were 12-4, for those keeping track), the regular season is now less than a month away.

It’s always fun to talk to oddsmakers over the summer when they are a little less busy than during the season, as the conversations are longer and more relaxed — and sometimes you’ll get some great nuggets you wouldn’t get when there are several more sports in season.

This Substack will focus on NFC teams, and two that have come up a lot in my conversations both play in the NFC North: Chicago and Detroit.

“As far as regular season wins, the public is betting Detroit Over 10.5,” one oddsmaker told me. “Public really likes them. And what’s not to like? If Jared Goff can have a season similar to last year, they should put themselves in a good position to win the NFC.”

At BetMGM, a whopping 87% of the bets and 98% of the total dollars wagered are on the Lions to go Over 10.5 wins.

The Bears, meanwhile, had 51% of bets on the Over 8.5 and 49% on the Under at BetMGM, and had the most wagers of any team on its win total at the sportsbook. Everyone seems to have an opinion on how Caleb Williams will perform and Chicago’s season will go.

“The Bears have 4x the handle of any other win total,” one oddsmaker said over the phone last week. “I feel like every year, there is always a public darling team/QB. I think Chicago is going to be that darling team that people bet because you get a good price on them, and you can talk yourself into them making the playoffs or maybe winning the division.”

Several oddsmakers have also divulged that they had taken sharp action on Philadelphia to win the NFC East, flipping the Eagles to the favorite after Dallas opened a +110 fave.

I’ll divulge plenty more here in the coming weeks from my conversations with oddsmakers, but for now I’ve gathered 20 NFC over/under bets from some respected bettors in the space and grouped them by division. I’ll add to this file as we head into the season and continue expanding it.

As always, good luck with your wagers and please consider becoming a paid subscriber!

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Season win total best bets

NFC East

Cowboys UNDER 10.5 wins (-115) — Lou Finocchiaro, pro bettor

NY Giants UNDER 6.5 (-135) — Jason Logan, Covers